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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Spekulatius who wrote (35197)	8/21/2009 2:24:11 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78749

Spekulatius, I've considered your post, and I give up on finding any good clunker-car ideas to short. Maybe Group 1, or perhaps Sonic. Group 1 has suspended their clunker program as of today because of paperwork issues with the government. (The program ends Monday anyway, I believe.) These companies have exposure to southern states and may be adversely affected by hurricanes this season. The stocks in the sector seem to me to rise and fall together. So if shorting, it may not matter which auto retailer one chooses. My bet would be GPI at current price. finance.yahoo.com Nice if somebody bought at lows this year---almost ten baggers on some. (Aside: Geez! So quickly and so large. If I didn't see it, I wouldn't believe it. Sorry I missed it. These auto retailers run on a lot of debt, e.g. 2:1 d/e, and that scared me out when the debt market froze in that Nov-Mar period.) I don't know about Ford or parts suppliers, or anything else related that I could see as a short here. I own PAG: I like Mr. Penske for his business acumen. In addition to being "just" an auto retailer, PAG has bought the Saturn business from GM, and PAG is the only dealer(distributor) of the "Smart Fortwo" in the USA. So that gives PAG some added profit opportunities.

To: Spekulatius who wrote (35197)	8/21/2009 10:05:52 PM
From: Spekulatius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78749

Taking some profits here with NOC and SMBL. Cash now up to 40%+ of my portfolio again. We all look like geniuses here with our recent stock picks but I don't think it will remain this way. My Portfolio value is at an all-time high. 2008 must have been a nightmare. Paul you are correct that stocks are not cheap based on earnings and considering the economy. The prices incorporate now a fairly rapid improvement. If that does not happen, we are going through to rough waters, imo.