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To: kemble s. matter who wrote (19762)10/29/1997 10:29:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit  Respond to of 176387
 
Kemble, in order to have that kind of growth we would need to be looking at growth in the computer industry as a whole of at least 30%. I believe current estimates are more of the order of 16%. There are two components to industry growth: penetration to new users (e.g, via notebooks) and the normal replacement cycle. I believe that the replacement cycle is longer than it has been in the past. I don't know what the impact of the new release of Windows NT will be, and whether that will lead to migration to Pentium II's or whatever else Intel has coming down the pike, but at this point I think you'd be deluding yourself to believe that Dell can sustain the kind of growth it's seen in the recent past.

Regards,

Paul