Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (89884)	8/22/2009 12:32:57 PM
From: GROUND ZERO™	15 Recommendations Respond to of 94695

WEEKEND MARKET POLL FOR BEARS... Yesterday, the DOW closed at 9,505.96... let your opinion count, if you think the next 1,000 DOW points is lower, then please Recommend This Post... Thank you... GZ

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (89884)	8/22/2009 4:52:30 PM
From: Real Man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Lots of hidden bulls around, huh? I voted though, but you couldn't. That makes it 5:2 -g- Going to yahoo finance, the key headline: "The End of a 30-year Wealth bubble" - NYT.com For some, the past few decades have been a lucrative climb up the money ladder, but new research reveals it may be over. Geez, this stuff is everywhere! That, as the market climbed over 50% from March lows.

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (89884)	8/22/2009 7:19:38 PM
From: Oblomov	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

GZ, I rode the market up from March, and became bearish in early August. The higher high in the major indices, confirmed by a higher high in crude, has converted me back to the bull side, as least provisionally. The downside risks are numerous, but the key ones are -the true state of the Chinese economy is a mystery (and the reality is likely far bleaker than the press releases from the CCP portray) -US consumer psychology is in transition. It would be worrisome if the zero/negative savings rate returned. OTOH, a transition to a more capital-intensive (and less consumer-intensive) economy would be positive, though somewhat painful. The markets could rally along with the dollar, if indeed this transition occurred. -if the degree of government intervention in the economy increased, it could threaten the bull case, which IMO has been buttressed by the improving prospects for gridlock. Cap & trade or Obamacare, if they pass, could kill a recovery. I'll be increasing my exposure, but watching how the market responds to the news very closely. The rally in April-May seemed much safer. It restored many stocks to fair value, but the subsequent rally began pricing in a recovery that has yet to materialize.