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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Elroy Jetson who wrote (104640)	8/25/2009 12:16:18 PM
From: John Vosilla	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 110194

'This same delayed decline in real estate prices also occurred in Los Angeles in the decline of 1989 to 1996. The major price decline did not take place until 1993, a full three and a half years into the decline. The final price decline in my local area, based on the price of foreclosure sales, from 1989 to 1993-5 was 50% for homes and 70% for condos.' Down here in the built out areas that are in the 'nicer' areas where you also don't compete with new construction I think we are down 50-60% in single family. In the newer areas/exhurbs with tons of new homes built during the bubble and in the rougher/subprime hoods we are easy down 70%+. Worst hit condos I've seen were conversions or new construction as high as $200k during the bubble and now sell in the $20's all cash deals that are almost impossible to finance so almost down 85-90% I'd say is a crash beyond belief. All has been pretty stable price wise since about Feb-March and I follow a lot of areas in my state. I believe the remaining distressed inventory will churn from weak to strong hands in the next 2 or so years and we will be done with this cycle.