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Biotech / Medical : Ligand (LGND) Breakout! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tdinovo who wrote (10383)	10/29/1997 11:29:00 PM
From: Abuckatatime	Respond to of 32384

Ted, >>the action the last several days has been quite sobering<<. Right, like being pulled over for driving a bit over 65 and then realizing that yeah, maybe I have been trying to get there a bit faster that I have to. I'm going to get there, why rush. Thanks officer, I needed that. Of course, pretty soon we're back to our old habits. Science is key. Science + technology + good management + money ==> FDA approval ==> earnings. Its a simple equation for me (probably too simple for my own good). All that's required on my part is open eyes and ears and some patience. And access to this thread. (:>) Good post, enjoyed it.

To: tdinovo who wrote (10383)	10/29/1997 11:39:00 PM
From: DrJerry	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 32384

Ted, TD, Andy, Henry: "Science doesn't move stocks; predictable earnings do." I may be mistaken Ted but the move from 8 to 18 in LGND was not based on predictable earnings but based on expectation of profit (ie when awareness by the big boys that LGND science has ultimate market value to a LLY or WLA an appropriate "push" would allow for near term profit). Predictable earnings are 2+ years away and yet expectation of profit based on enthusiastic, erudite analysis by Henry should allow for repetitive peaks and valleys. I may be a heretic but I am making these investments for per-centage gains period. A 100% gain at 16 aint bad hay. That said: (1) I'm still expecting my wine on Halloween (2) I'm thrilled to learn that Texas Dude and Andy are mountain boys- my skis are waxed and ready for a 4 minute bomb run from the top of Ajax down Spar Gulch to a nice Ale at Ajax Tavern. Have any of you guys listened to Yefim Bronfman play Rachmaninoff while the sun was setting over Ajax?

To: tdinovo who wrote (10383)	10/30/1997 12:15:00 AM
From: Vector1	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 32384

tdinovo, Interesting post. I agree with your general philosophy in terms of the value of finding stocks that you can buy and hold. I used to believe as you do that an individual investor does not stand a chance against professional money managers. I am not so sure I continue to believe that. No question an institutional MM has access to senior management although you can not just pick up the phone and arrange a meeting with the CEO unless you are very large holder in the stock which has its own disadvantages. Typically you get the CFO. Now how valuable is this. When you don't have access you think its incredibly valuable but what you have to remember is that every CEO and CFO that a MM speaks to is touting and putting the best spin on their stock. You don't just get objective factual useful information but you also get a hell of a lot of bullsh_t and figuring out the fact from the fiction is not easy. Also if you are a big fund it is very difficult to invest in small biotechs. Most large funds need to put out chunks of $20m or more in an investment. Thats very difficult in an illiquid biotech and you can drive the price up on the way in and knock the hell out of it on the way out. Professional money managers are envious of the liquidity which the little guys can move in and out of a a stock without causing a stir. As the biotech industry matures and a number of companies reach ahe billion dollar market cap, institutional investors will have a much easier time investing in the sector. Also there are very few dedicated biotech funds. Much of the money is from healthcare and growth funds. TD I would bet you a bottle of wine that there are at least a half a dozen people on this thread who understand LGND far better than most of the MMs who are invested. Thats one of the problems with LGND. Its a complicated story and for a MM who is not expert in biotech they don't have the time , patience and in some instances the intellect. There used to be a huge info gap, but the internet and boards like SI are a great equalizer. On the VD thread we have participants who have tremendous expertise in a number of scientific and financial areas. A number of us email to each other and share info. I hope this doesn't sound like bravado but with the help of the many great folks I have met on the thread and my own research and dd network I have great confidence that I will outperform most MMs in my personal account. The power of the internet is awesome and the great equalizer. We should not sell the info available here short. V1

To: tdinovo who wrote (10383)	10/30/1997 1:59:00 AM
From: Andrew H	Respond to of 32384

Well thought and expressed post, Ted. Have to agree with much of what you say. For the small investor, picking good companies, and buying them and holding them is the best way to go. Too tricky to try to time the markets and individual stocks.

To: tdinovo who wrote (10383)	10/30/1997 7:11:00 AM
From: Arthur Radley	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 32384

Ted, A well written and thought out post. It probably wouldn't hurt for you to save it and repost it every Monday morning before the market opens so that we can be brought back to reality as to how the market operates. As for Ligand, I have no doubt that when we look back in a couple of years, we will be saying ..."can you believe this stock could have been bought in 1997 at $9.00 a share". As with most stocks, they nearly always fall into that period of what I think is called.."dead money". I think that LGND is in or will be shortly in that stage. For the real longer term investor probably the best thing they could do is put their shares of LGND in the lockbox and never look at SI for the next 6 to 8 months.(Just kidding about SI, as the beauty of this thread is the comradeship fostered by our bantering back and forth) I would have to disagree with the statement about my sinning indicating that I know what I'm doing. As I always post, I'm just a TexasDude that on occasion has to drop the "e".(:>)

To: tdinovo who wrote (10383)	10/30/1997 7:22:00 AM
From: Henry Niman	Respond to of 32384

Ted,Speaking ofinformation flow, there should be several articles (from a science as well as financial vantage point) coming out very soon in some major publications and some, if not all, will discuss LGND and diabetes.