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Strategies & Market Trends : Ride the Tiger with CD -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Metacomet who wrote (173618)	8/29/2009 11:15:42 AM
From: LoneClone	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 313053

I am not the man to answer that -- all I see is variables... LC

To: Metacomet who wrote (173618)	8/30/2009 5:03:33 AM
From: E. Charters	1 Recommendation Respond to of 313053

I think you have to look at the varia of ETG as a stochastic process and thus the emergent properties become most important. The positive indicators/stimuli are subject to unknown reactions at unknown times. Every resultant is either a sum or a difference of the co-operant forces; their sum, when their directions are the same -- their difference, when their directions are contrary. Further, every resultant is clearly traceable in its components, because these are homogeneous and commensurable. It is otherwise with emergents, when, instead of adding measurable motion to measurable motion, or things of one kind to other individuals of their kind, there is a co-operation of things of unlike kinds. The emergent is unlike its components insofar as these are incommensurable, and it cannot be reduced to their sum or their difference." Whereas we cannot be determinative like Laplace, we can be holistic. You may be hoping for strong emergence, or uninhibited confluence of the positives, ignoring the complex interactions that have unseen negative implications. Although strong emergence is logically possible, it is uncomfortably like magic. How does an irreducible but supervenient downward causal power arise, since by definition it cannot be due to the aggregation of the micro-level potentialities? Such causal powers would be quite unlike anything within our scientific ken. This not only indicates how they will discomfort reasonable forms of materialism. Their mysteriousness will only heighten the traditional worry that emergence entails illegitimately getting something from nothing." This leaves us with the only resort being that the whole must be observed and the interaction of its parts weakly predicted only. It may be easiest to assemble historic likenesses, or analogs, and predict events based on the most prepossessing characteristics that most distinguish the present item or singularity. In other words the strongest character of a thing, event or situation, that is most like the best observed and most noticeable part of a past event or thing may serve to most accurately predict its future behaviour. Another class of simulacrums that may be applied to create an analog is to aggregate a critical mass of positives and negatives and do rough comparisons, using gut feeling weighting based on experience. The overall effect of things that are overarching may be predicted by observing like previous events, assuming the things observed have a "isolated effect", i.e. do not interact in a complex way. i.e. a stock market crash brings all prices down. So there are things that assemble by interacting and co-operating/conflicting and things that drape over the whole thing and set a level. Looking for things that are way complex is hopeless. There are no formulae except stochastic and statistical. The gut feeling technique such as a sentiment index is valid, as the prime mover of a stock is people with even lower IQ yourself, buying and selling the stock for just as bad non analytic reasons. Complex interactions could be modeled by factor analysis or correlational analysis statistically. Most of the effects on a stock's behaviour are based on mass inertia of the stock support group with regard to its perceived momentum. Herd behaviour. This is underscored by its financial behaviour vis a vis earnings and markets. It is wise to remember that people buy stocks to make money, and the existence of money to buy them is the best reason to sell. With ETG, the health of the stock is best determined by the politics of Mongolia, the determination of Management to cast all the eggs into one steel basket in that country, the price of copper, the tractability and needs of Ivanhoe, the hunger for raw materials and energy of China, etc.. in short they depend on the world economy. If I were them I would be exploring for gold mines elsewhere. Coal is a loser except for very long term. Evidently they have salaries and the welfare of their stockholders is not their most pressing concern. Although few know right now if UW will ever attain critical mass in the far off Yukon or if EVG will rattle the snakes out of the Arizona hills, I would tend to bet sideways to up on them over the next six months. UW is constrained by rapdily falling termination dust, but EVG will rattle and hum for a while. Have you ever seen a fractal cauliflower? "On the other hand, merely having a large number of interactions is not enough by itself to guarantee emergent behaviour; many of the interactions may be negligible or irrelevant, or may cancel each other out. In some cases, a large number of interactions can in fact work against the emergence of interesting behaviour, by creating a lot of "noise" to drown out any emerging "signal"; the emergent behaviour may need to be temporarily isolated from other interactions before it reaches enough critical mass to be self-supporting. Thus it is not just the sheer number of connections between components which encourages emergence; it is also how these connections are organised. A hierarchical organisation is one example that can generate emergent behaviour (a bureaucracy may behave in a way quite different from that of the individual humans in that bureaucracy); but perhaps more interestingly, emergent behaviour can also arise from more decentralized organisational structures, such as a marketplace. In some cases, the system has to reach a combined threshold of diversity, organisation, and connectivity before emergent behaviour appears." EC<:-}