Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dennis Roth who wrote (123990)	9/3/2009 7:14:49 AM
From: Dennis Roth	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206161

RESEARCH - Natural Gas / E&Ps - Curve Shifts Lower, Rig Count Rising - Jonathan Wolff + 2010 Gas Curve Shifts Below $5.50. The 2010 natural gas curve is currently trading at $5.46 per MMBtu, falling 10% in the last month ($6.07) and down 23% from the beginning of the year ($7.13). Likewise, the hedging window to add on material price protection is closing. Producers Have Been Hedging 2010. Post Q2 earnings updates, we estimate the E&Ps are currently 39% hedged on 2010 North American gas production. This is a higher hedging level than typically seen for this time of year, indicating some producer uncertainty on gas and a need to maintain growth momentum. The hedging profile ensures prices above the current curve, including 23% through $7.62 per MMBtu swaps and 14% through ~$8.50/$6.00 per MMBtu collars. Gassy producers in our coverage with high levels of gas hedging for 2010 include APC (81%), NFX (74%), KWK (66%), HK (64%) and SD (62%). Gassy producers with light hedge books include DVN (0%), EOG (2%), ME (10%), SWN (15%) and CHK (19%). Production Not Down Much Yet. Last week's June 2009 EIA-914 report showed just slight declines in the onshore (0.3% mo/mo) despite significant rig count losses seen year-to-date (648 rigs dropped). Onshore yr/yr growth is indeed decelerating, down to 0.6 Bcf/d (+1.1%) in June versus a peak of 6.0 Bcf/d (+12%) in October '08. However, we see risk that production creeps higher in Q4 following Q3 shut-ins, Independence Hub maintenance, Boardwalk pipeline downtime and many producer plans to add rigs heading into 2010. Rig Count Bounces Off the Lows. Despite the weakness in the curve, the Lower 48 U.S. natural gas rig count has risen for the last six consecutive weeks, hitting 699 as of last Friday (8/28). The rig count is now up 5% (+34 rigs) from the 665 trough set on July 17. 11 of the 25 companies we follow raised capex along with Q2 results and many companies have discussed adding rigs and pushing growth higher for 2010. Note published 2nd September 2009 Extracted from Credit Suisse Global Oil Daily 03 September 2009

To: Dennis Roth who wrote (123990)	9/3/2009 10:57:42 AM
From: Dennis Roth	3 Recommendations Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 206161

65 BCF INJECTION - About as expected. Plenty in storage for this time of the year. Expectations were: Dow Jones Survey 65 Bcf Bloomberg Survey 67 Bcf Reuters Survey N.A. BENTEK Storage Rpt 56 Bcf First Enercast 63 Bcf robry825 2003 model 63 Bcf, 2005 51 Bcf, 2008 63 Bcf z24blackjet 64 Bcf Last year's build 92 Bcf Five year average 64 Bcf Summary: Working gas in storage was 3,323 Bcf as of Friday, August 28, 2009, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 65 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 489 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 501 Bcf above the 5-year average of 2,822 Bcf. In the East Region, stocks were 156 Bcf above the 5-year average following net injections of 52 Bcf. Stocks in the Producing Region were 268 Bcf above the 5-year average of 818 Bcf after a net injection of 7 Bcf. Stocks in the West Region were 77 Bcf above the 5-year average after a net addition of 6 Bcf. At 3,323 Bcf, total working gas is above the 5-year historical range. Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with 5-Year Range eia.doe.gov

To: Dennis Roth who wrote (123990)	9/9/2009 4:21:20 PM
From: Dennis Roth	2 Recommendations Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 206161

DJ US GAS: Futures Climb On Bargain Hunting, Despite Mild Weather futuresource.quote.com Analysts and traders expect a larger-than-average build of 71 billion cubic feet was added to storage last week, according to the average of estimates in a Dow Jones Newswires survey. Bloomberg: Natural Gas Gains on Speculation Higher Demand Will Ease Glut bloomberg.com Supplies may have gained 72 billion cubic feet* last week, based on the median of 16 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.* Reuters: * Benchmark Henry Hub gas again firms to NYMEX futures * Fred major hurricane, no threat to production or land * Record storage, sagging industrial demand still weigh NEW YORK, Sept 9 (Reuters) - U.S. spot natural gas prices rose at every price point for the second consecutive trading day Wednesday, with benchmark Henry Hub gas in Louisiana climbing nearly 12 percent amid stronger energy futures and continued strength in U.S. equities, traders said... www1.investorvillage.com Injection estimates for this week's EIA report ranged from 59 bcf to 100 bcf, with most traders and analysts expecting stocks to rise by about 73 bcf when weekly data is released Thursday at about 10:30 a.m. EDT, a Reuters survey showed. First Enercast NG Estimate www1.investorvillage.com +59 Bcf Z24blackjet www1.investorvillage.com +64 Bcf robry825 www1.investorvillage.com +58 Bcf ===== Expectations for Thursday's reported storage build are: Dow Jones Survey 71 Bcf Bloomberg Survey 72 Bcf Reuters Survey 73 Bcf BENTEK Storage Rpt N.A First Enercast 59 Bcf robry825 2003 model 58 Bcf, 2005 56 Bcf, 2008 58 Bcf z24blackjet 64 Bcf Last year's build 63 Bcf Five year average 67 Bcf Big discrepancy between the estimates of the news wires and everyone else.