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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JimisJim who wrote (123997)	9/5/2009 4:02:42 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 206093

Elroy's points: The underlying hurdle price, poses a problem: how you can tell that price will be in 2015 - 2017 when the oil will come on stream? If one cannot tell the price in 2015 - 2017 how they make the calculation today to justify the investment in a risky project? The underlying hurdle price, what that price is composed of and how you can tell that price will be in 2015 - 2017? We know today price is defined by a miriad of factors: USD value (USD down oil up) Market perception (made up by the press) Countries Reserves (variation on the amount of oil major consumer countries have plus oil stored by speculators) Bunch of bandidoes in Niger Delta (swing the oil price as much as OPEC meeting in Vienna) Saber rattling of Iran in Hormuz Straight China rebuilding reserves Projections of GDP growth after recession Caribbean hurricane season In short, predicting oil price 2015 - 2017 is like predicting the weather in 2015 - 2017.