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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dennis Roth who wrote (124001)	9/3/2009 7:01:00 AM
From: Think4Yourself	Respond to of 206176

Those are some interesting charts. It's pretty clear China has been stockpiling commodities. Also liked their comments about electricity demand being key to understanding what is happening under the covers. Quite correct.

To: Dennis Roth who wrote (124001)	9/10/2009 8:15:33 AM
From: Dennis Roth	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206176

Fuel for Thought- Russian Oil Production - more growth to come 16 pages - 230 KB Link: sendspace.com Excerpt: Russian oil production can grow further. We argue that Russian oil production can grow in 2009, in 2010 and beyond. We do not share the consensus view that recent gains are temporary and overall output decline is imminent and inevitable. The Big Four Russian Oils are forging ahead with investment in Eastern Siberia, Timan Pechora and Offshore Caspian and will deliver production growth from large new fields in these provinces over the next few years, while keeping the base largely flat. Upstream economics support expansion Russian oil production is growing again because upstream economics have materially improved. A much lower Ruble has pushed down US$ equivalent production costs, while most new production is coming from lower tax regions. Prime Minister Putin recently signaled that the government will provide further fiscal incentives to oil producers. There is also room for further technology applications in existing mature areas. Expect 2% grow th in 2010. Contrary to consensus thinking, we expect Russian oil production will grow 2% or 200 KBD in 2010, helping keep overall non-OPEC oil supply close to flat. Remain positive on the major Russian oil companies - we maintain our positive recommendations on Rosneft (Outperform, TP $7.30) and LUKOIL (Outperform, TP $61.35), both of whom will benefit from solid production growth in the short-term and a migration of production towards lower tax regions in the medium-term. ======== Asia Oil & Gas: Crude Thoughts. Oil beyond the US ISM crossing 50 12 pages -220 KB Link: sendspace.com Excerpt: The US ISM recently crossed 50. In the three instances where the ISM crossed 50 in 1996, 1999 and 2003, oil tended to rise 23-112%. However, in each of the instances, it did nothing before the event. This time, it is up 56%, and total returns from the bottom of the ISM are already more than in 1996 and 2003. They are short of 1999, but it was different then, as OPEC was still cutting production, affordability in the US was 30% higher and oil prices were at US$10/bbl. Global growth and demand set to surprise. 2Q09 was the bottom for global oil demand, and should improve. Our current forecasts expect global industrial production to revert back to 2007 levels by the end of 2010. Even if we assume a more aggressive recovery in demand, spare capacity falls but remains above 2004-07 levels. Oil is pricing in future improvements. The correlation between oil and the S&P 500 is at an all-time high. Money flow has been hugely supportive. Oil has outperformed US natural gas significantly since February 2009. Spare capacity is at an all-time high, and refining is not tight. All of these factors suggest that oil is ahead of itself and discounting a better future. What to own and what to sell. The biggest underperformers, such as CNOOC and PetroChina, could see rotational interest. We maintain our UNDERPERFORM rating on CNOOC. We like OGDC and ONGC. Pure refiners like S-Oil and GS Holdings have lagged and could catch up. We would avoid the hybrid refiners with chemical exposure, given the poor outlook for chemicals.