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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: carranza2 who wrote (54429)	9/3/2009 3:56:57 PM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 218134

Look to Japan last 19 years 1990-2009. The country stagnated and it is only keep economic activity via artificial GDP growth. I extrapolate that to Western Europe. Then you would point that Europe grew, did not stagnate in the same period. That (still keeping Japanese extrapolation in mind) was only achieved via buying consuming markets of Eastern Europe. Without the buying out out Eastern Europe, Western Europe would have gone Japan way. Western Europe market buy up is now complete. There is no more country to be found as markets for European goods and services. Europe stagnates. Let's now turn to the US. It only kept going -after Nixon went out of Gold standard- via fleecing of other countries, creating artifical crisis to result on a flight to quality whereby it imported capital to keep its economy going. This ended after Asian Meltdown. Countries wised up. Increased foreign reserves to avoid being fleeced. US reacted by via artificial wealth creation. Bubble after bubble. First tech bubble. Followed by housing bubble. Bubbling scheme is now exhausted. US stagnates too. As the stagantion is now completed, the industries start going bankrupt. One after the other. Unemployment increases. Consumers confidence goes down. Thsi reaches a point when it downs on electorates that there is no way the stimulus will result on a rebound. They will finally adapt to a new level of consumption. Consumption of energy plummets dramatically. The consumption appears elesewhere. Why, you'd be asking by now. Because of decoupling. The rest of the world takes the slack. The oild is just going to be burned by another people.

To: carranza2 who wrote (54429)	9/3/2009 4:12:38 PM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 218134

OPEC will lose the upper hand as the gravity center moves out of the Gulf. The Chinese know the OPEC is an unholy alliance of big oil and the sheikdoms. Chinese will buy its oil needs in line of which countries buy their stuff. As OECD bought oil from whom buy their stuff, weaponry included, thus a constant state of warfare was to be concocted in he Middle East. China is not going to buy US oilshale or Canadian bitumen. They are going to LATAM oil and African oil and Russian gas and oil. Keep in mind that oil was much more than energy. It was a tool of control. Oil exploration and production deals today has this in mind when they do a deal. Both Brazil and China do not want to let anyone control issues via oil. Countries have not only smarted up to defend their currencies (avoiding fleecing as per last posting), they have their eyes on other means OECD can come out on top by way of deception. Thus no one is going to support Canada bitumen nor US oil shale in the same scale as oil in West Coast of Africa and LATAM.

To: carranza2 who wrote (54429)	9/3/2009 4:17:59 PM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 218134

What is the role of natural gas? Keep in mind a energy matrix. Before NG was just flared up as useless stuff. Obviously now is useful. It will be used to: Fire thermoelectric power plants feedstock for fertilizer. warm northern countries Mobile energy is liquid energy. Gasoline, Avgas, diesel and Ethanol. NG is a niche market as gas powered vehicles.

To: carranza2 who wrote (54429)	9/3/2009 4:43:47 PM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 218134

How will greenhouse gas initiatives affect consumption in both emerging and developed nations? Lets first qualify the Greehouse initiative before answering your question. It was a budding bubble cut before it germinated. Carbon trade was a concoction NOT to benefit the environment but to enrich traders. They premediated what I explained on posting about OECD down emerging markets up. They would try a way to fleece the emerging markets buy selling credits and make them pay for debts. It was a rent seeking scheme. That so qualified let me replyt to your question. Emerging markets are the cleanest economic growth in the mankind history. They are using much less energy per unit of GDP. And becoming better by the day. By the time Africa jin the fray (circa 2085) it will be even cleaner. Not only clean, mind you. Much much less material intensive. The American pole climber was a real pole climber not a metaphora such as the moderator. he used copper and wood to provide a few telephone lines. Moderator and his cohorts, in the other hand, use no coppper no wood. They use airwaves, no materials. Nor telehone diretcories neither Yellow pages to cut the trees either. We save a lot. A fluidized bed combustion, coal fired plant of today is a modern wonder compared with with what Europe had to propel their economies. Why that? You may be asking. It is a question of price. The OECD had to use what was around them. No transport infrastructure. Factory near the water channel. Fatory near the coal mine. Steel mill near the Great Lakes. Today we can put a factory anywhere. Emerging markets pay a high cost for fuel. Thus treates it as precious stuff. OECD when they were growing used fossil fuel in a very inneficient way. A lean burning Diesel engine of today is a AF447 Airbus 330 as compared with a donkey buggy, if e keep in mind the Diesel engines that powered OECD countries. What emerging markets still not doing is to carpet bomb the press with counter arguments for the junk science that have thrown on top of them.

To: carranza2 who wrote (54429)	9/3/2009 5:10:38 PM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 218134

"Western wind power and the sun." Those are niches. I have worked with a couple of companies developing such systems. We needed a hybrid Wind sun system to power up remote mobile sites. The idea was to have wind for windy days. Sun for sunny days and just a tiny diesel generator for back if we had cloudy days with quiet wind. Those will survive in OECD until subsidy money runs out.