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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Seeker of Truth who wrote (54486)	9/4/2009 12:19:00 PM
From: Maurice Winn	2 Recommendations Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 218008

Not eternal SoT, but there is a lot of the stuff around, especially if we consider heavy tars to be oil such as Venezuelan goop. < In other words oil will not be exhausted; some how it is eternal. > But even just with Saudi, Iranian, Libyan and other regular oil, there's a lot of the stuff around. In the late 1980s when pondering geopolitical what might happens, profits and the the like, a colleague and I concluded "a bullet through the middle east" would work wonders for the oil price. In a couple of years it had happened. Iraq oil is not up to capacity. There are many interests served by oil being expensive rather than cheap, with middle east oil production being disrupted. Russia, North American producers, French nuclear reactors, any nuclear reactors, windmill merchants, fuel efficient car makers, fuel efficient anything makers, insulation sellers, coal producers, gas producers [and they must be really annoyed right now], tar sand diggers, shale oil extractors, CO2 doomsters, tax collecting enthusiasts. When somebody's interests are served by something, they become biased and prone to think that what serves them is good for everyone. It's a well-recognized problem in the powerful. But everyone wants a piece of the action, so there is pressure to produce more energy and each dollar rise accelerates the profits from competing technologies and suppliers. Yes, oil supplies will gradually dwindle over 100 years, but that's a long time. In that time, there will be a human population implosion which has already started. Peak People will be in 2037. Peak Oil about the same time. Peak CO2 production about then too. Peak technology is not in sight. There seems to be no limit what can be done - imagine fully electronically and photonically automated individual people carriers moving at 1000 kph in linear motor propelled levitated cars in partial vacuum tubes. No traffic jams, no red lights, few airlines. Heck, we don't have to get that tricky. Just imagine small electric cars fully automated, with GPS, transponders, electronic and photonic control systems, still running on pneumatic tyres but with motors in the wheels. They would need homeopathic amounts of fuel. Clothes can be excellent insulators, so space heating would be not needed. If governments swap from other taxes to carbon taxes, there would be big incentives to do something else. That seems a good bet given the CO2 hysteria. Many interests would be served by such a move - CO2 gives them an excellent fig leaf with which to cover their naked greed. Any oil shortage and major permanent price rise would be over a century rather than a decade. From a price speculation point of view, a decade is a long time and nobody is interested in a century. Mqurice