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To: Noneyet who wrote (7295)	10/30/1997 8:33:00 AM
From: BillyG	Respond to of 25960

What's driving chip growth in 1998-2000........................ techweb.cmp.com A service of Semiconductor Business News, CMP Media Inc. Story updated 7:30 a.m. EST/4:30 a.m. PST, 10/30/97 What's driving chip growth in 1998-2000 By J. Robert Lineback SAN JOSE--The Semiconductor Industry Association said global chip sales will grow 16.8% to $162.6 billion in 1998, based on a significant rebound in DRAM revenues next year and continued strong growth in a number of key market segments, such as microprocessors and analog ICs. The new forecast was presented before the SIA's Annual Forecast and Awards Dinner in San Jose Wednesday evening. The SIA estimated that semiconductor sales would total $139.1 billion this year, an increase of 5.5% over last year's $131.9 billion sales (see Oct. 29 new coverage). The forecast, based on the consensus of market researchers from 70 chip companies worldwide, hinges on DRAMs showing a 20% revenue increase in 1998 to $25.0 billion compared to $20.8 billion this year. In 1997, DRAM revenues are expected to fall 16.9% after slipping 38.5% in 1996 to $25.1 billion. The troubled DRAM segment continues to struggle with price erosion and over capacity. In 1995, DRAM revenues hit a record $40.8 billion. Based on the new forecast by the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) organization, the SIA now expects DRAM revenues to climb to record levels in the year 2000, reaching $41.7 billion in sales worldwide. In other key market segments, the new SIA/WSTS forecast predicts: Microprocessor sales will continue strong growth in 1998, with revenues increasing 20.4% to $28.4 billion compared to $18.5 billion in 1997. In 1999, MPU sales will grow 19.6% to $34.0 billion followed by an increase of 19.3% in 2000 to $40.6 billion; Analog semiconductor sales are expected to grow 18.2% in 1998 from this year's $19.5 billion. In 1999, analog chip revenues will increase another 17.8%, followed by a rise of 19.1% in the year 2000, pushing the market segment to $32.4 billion; and, Total revenues for MOS memories (including DRAMs) will grow 16.9% in 1998 to $35.5 billion, up from $30.4 billion in 1997. MOS memory sales will grow another 23.4% and 25% in 1999 and 2000, respectively, pushing revenues to $54.8 billion by the start of the next century. Regionally, the Asia-Pacific chip market is expected to show the strongest growth--despite recent financial turmoil in some countries. The new WSTS forecast predicts the Asia-Pacific region will overtake Japan as the second largest semiconductor market in the year 2000, reaching $56.5 billion in sales. The Japanese chip market will reach $49.8 billion in 2000, according to the WSTS forecast. In 1997, Japan's chip market will slip 1.9% to $33.5 billion compared to 1996 revenues, based on the new forecast. In contrast, the Asia-Pacific semiconductor market will grow 10.2% in 1997 to $30.3 billion compared to $27.5 billion in 1996, according to the WSTS forecast. The Americas chip market is now expected to grow 17.2% to $54.9 billion in 1998 compared to $46.8 billion this year. By the year 2000, semiconductor revenues in the Americas will reach $78.4 billion-continuing to make it the world's largest regional market, according to the WSTS forecast. Europe's chip revenues are now expected to grow 17% next year from $28.4 billion in 1997. By the year 2000, chip sales in Europe will reach $47.5 billion, said the new WSTS forecast.