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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Real Man who wrote (90242)	9/9/2009 7:14:02 AM
From: robert b furman	1 Recommendation Respond to of 94695

Hi VI and GZ, When I looked into interest rate derivatives they came in 1,3 and 5 year proposals. The one year had the least benefit.The 5 year had the greatest savings and risk of cost and a 5 year with a 3 year out clause had the best value. It seems to me that as time continues around this "potential land mine"that the potential for a explosion atrophies. In many ways it is much like the "Commercial Real Estate " shoe that has been looming to drop out in the future. It also very much reminds me of the other shoe that was supposed to fall in the 1998 Asian Contasion (that didn't occur) - China default. In all of these cases money injections coupled with sound reserves, that actually did exist prevented the next level of collapse. I believe that with every day that expires, we find derivatives unwinding in an orderly fashion (keep in mind that 85 % of all derivatives were interest rate derivatives) - only a small percent were real estate related and those were to my knowledge always written against commercial property). The commercial property collapse has been orchestrated and predicted so long that I believe the money to prevent its systemic collapse has already been allocated. I've no doubt some smaller investors will exchange properties and there will be money made from it by those who have arranged lines of credit or sold bonds. I just DO NOT think the systemic collapse that has been bantied about, will in in fact occur at all. It has already been threatened too long. These fuses are long and backed by enough assets to not be of a systemic demise nature. With every day that passes we look at the potential of occurrence farther back in our rear view mirrror. It is time to look forward to growth and optimism,albeit slow to develope and anemic in its growth. Just my gut talking. Bob