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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Peter V who wrote (90292)	9/10/2009 6:25:31 PM
From: Larry S.	Respond to of 94695

Sorry again!! I should have looked at the posts on the thread before I sent my last response. I thought I typed Section 6 but you found it anyhow. Just remember that revenues do not include the interest paid on the Trust Fund balance. I understand that its rate is equal to the average of the interest rate on the 4 and greater year Note. FWIW, the Undistributed receipts associated with SS are near the bottom of page 18. They are subtracted from OUTLAYS and are not part of the Off-Budget number but they reduce the deficit. Larry

To: Peter V who wrote (90292)	9/11/2009 11:58:24 PM
From: Larry S.	Respond to of 94695

The MTS for August is posted and there is some truth to the comments you referenced. I just noticed that the interest on the securities in the TF is apparently paid quarterly. It was trivial during July and August and didn't cover the shortfall in revenues as I had assumed. There was actually a net reduction in the TF balance in August. It will clearly be made up for in September but it is a fact that revenues have dropped to the point where there is no longer a surplus every months. I was too quick to complain and hadn't thought about the impact that the increased unemployment was having on revenues. But, the TF will still grow this year and probably for several more years. The real problem is that the TF has been a holding pen for debt and the gate is about to open. Over the next 30 years, it will all get out and be transfered to the public. Larry