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Technology Stocks : S3 (A LONGER TERM PERSPECTIVE) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Michael who wrote (7039)	10/30/1997 11:25:00 AM
From: Brian Fuller	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 14577

>> IF GJ wants to open up a lemonade stand I don't care<< He already did, it's called the product portfolio.

To: Michael who wrote (7039)	10/30/1997 11:57:00 AM
From: Leo Francis	Respond to of 14577

Mike, oh how wrong you are. By entering into a position where the fundamentals are declining, and betting for a turn around, is speculating. But by entering into a position based on proven fundamentals, and increasing fundamentals, one is investing. Naturally one can never time the tops or bottoms perfectly or predict all future news which can effect a stock. But it should be clear what the differnce is between investing, and speculating. Many thought SIII was going higher at previous levels because it was believed that the fundamentals were improving, not deterioating as was proven and announced during the last CC. You other points may be valid, but just because a stock WAS at 17, doesn't automatically mean it will return. Again, SIII remanins on my radar screen, and I am waiting for some positive fundamental changes before I invest. Good Trading, LF

To: Michael who wrote (7039)	10/30/1997 1:06:00 PM
From: Bill Lin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 14577

Michael, you are proposing a gap argument that Leo Francis already proposed. i ask you to present proof that S3 will gap away from a fundamentally sound price or has in the past. 1) It is trading above it's liquidation value. Unless a business is near failure, this is a prime buying opportunity. if you think this value approach is valid, buy GM, F, C: GM trades at 68 ('97 eps $7.80, dividend $2.00 3%, death value around $84-$95) others have worse values. S3 need not apply for membership. The fab is an ongoing part of their business and should be considered just as any other revenue/earnings you are mixing two issues: 1) addition of minority owned income/loss and 2)valuation of the USC investment at market value. If USC costs become uncompetitive, it will lose money. TSMC and UMC (USC parent) often bid for the same business. Overcapacity concerns are driving current Pac Rim tech sell off. Valuation AND income are NOT certain going past next 3 months. I'm holding long and buying more if I can at the 8 1/2 range. i'm greedier than you, waiting for $7 then $4. At $4 the value will match GM's. nothing wrong buying into that. At 8.5, i see a risk of 50% downfall on a new position. BUT if you buy based on book value, you would have gotten clocked with Media Vision, Acclaim Entertainment (Wall Street Journals WORST 5 yr performer) and other tech companies who bled cash and decreased $5-$8 book value to $0.00 and NEGATIVE by NOT KEEPING UP with the pace of innovation. ) It is seen 17+ twice in the last year and will see it again. When? Who knows. TIME VALUE OF MONEY is an important concept if you are a day trader. $17 in 5 years is worthless. My forecast is next September. If GX4 is an exponential product then $20's by next December (if not then $10 again). if GX5 (for lact of a better description) is again an exponential product, then $35 in sept. '99 (if not, then $7 again.) Our uncertainty in S3's outlook (pro and con) is based upon hidden values within S3 R&D. 4) They are still the market leader. They will continue to be although new products are lagging behind schedule. the companies who lead their markets without leading edge products (IOM, MSFT, GM, PG, LUV) have some sort of proprietary edge. This strategic barrier prevents competitors from outdeveloping them (although in GM's case, their brand loyalty has been disappearing). Market leader does not mean unit sales leader. market leader means being able to CONTROL industry prices. INTEL is a market leader. PG is. AMAT. UAL. When they move prices, people listen. If S3 moves prices, it affects the low end only, not the high end. They are half a market leader. (400 lb gorilla not 800lb.) hmmm...otherwise, i agree with you. :) BL ps, i know i'm quibbling with your statements. go ahead and attack back.