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Politics : Rat's Nest - Chronicles of Collapse -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wharf Rat who wrote (9538)	9/17/2009 12:29:35 AM
From: Wharf Rat	Respond to of 24212

Oil prices mean perpetual recession Posted: September 16, 2009, 2:16 PM by Diane Francis The turmoil since August 2007 has not been blamed directly on oil prices but there’s a link. “The US has experienced six recessions since 1972. At least five of these were associated with oil prices. In every case, when oil consumption in the US reached 4% percent of GDP, the U.S. went into recession. Right now, 4% of GDP is US$80 a barrel oil. So my current view is that if the oil price exceeds US$80, then expect the U.S. to fall back into recession,” wrote Steven Kopits, managing director for U.K.-based energy-consulting and -research firm Douglas-Westwood LLC in New York. Kopits is a poster boy on all the “peak oil” websites and doomsayer blogs, and his metric on the link between recessions and oil price is interesting. If Kopits is correct, so much for “green shoots”. They will be trampled under foot over and over again unless there is a sudden spike upwards in GDP growth disproportionally more so than oil price increases.Here is the roller-coaster cycle he points out: Higher oil prices mean recessions, recessions mean less consumption then lower oil prices which leads to less exploration and supply which leads to higher oil prices and recession again. Solutions? Stop driving The reality suggests that there are only two antidotes to this vicious cycle. Gradual price increases mitigate the negative effect of oil price increases. Recessions follow jumps of 50% within one year. The Saudis and OPEC plus other producers would have to play a role in modulating prices. Or else consuming nations must reduce consumption dramatically through legislation, taxation and rationing. Or crude oil expenditures should not exceed 4% of GDP and this must be mandated by governments. Here are some other Kopits’ views affecting oil and economic conditions: Kopits on supply: “If I dispassionately just look at the numbers, the oil supply has not improved that much since the 4th quarter of 2004. And I don’t see anything on the horizon that makes it appear that we’re going to break out into a really new level of production that’s far different than what we have today.” Kopits on demand: “Consumption will tend to grow faster in developing economies for two reasons. First, by their nature, developing economies should grow faster than mature ones, and this has been generally true of east Asia and strikingly so in the case of China. So faster economic growth means faster growth in demand for oil. Further, oil consumption growth follows an “S”-curve. At low levels of GDP, oil demand growth is quite slow. Once a country has reached middle class income levels, per capita oil consumption stabilizes. However, in the middle, as a country becomes middle class, oil demand growth can be explosive. Take South Korea, for example. South Korean per capita oil consumption peaked in 1996; however, in the previous 12 years, the country’s consumption increased nearly fourfold. China is now firmly on the S-curve. Based on South Korean experience, we would expect Chinese oil demand to stabilize at around 50 mbpd around 2032-2035.” (China currently 8 million per day, US 20 million, Japan 5 million). Kopits on price: "If you have a flat—or heaven help us, declining—supply of oil, then the emerging and fast-growing economies will have no choice but to start bidding away the oil from the advanced or slow-growing economies. That is consistent with what we’ve seen in the data starting in about 2006. For China to grow, it will have to take away the oil of Japan, the US and Europe, just as it has in the last three years.” network.nationalpost.com

To: Wharf Rat who wrote (9538)	9/18/2009 10:12:32 AM
From: abuelita	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24212

Fundy tidal power demonstration approved Last Updated: Thursday, September 17, 2009 \| 11:47 AM AT CBC News The Fundy tidal power demonstration project in the Minas Basin, near Parrsboro, was given the green light Tuesday by Nova Scotia's Environment Minister Sterling Belliveau. An artist's rendition shows a turbine harnessing power from the Bay of Fundy tides. Tidal power turbines with blades up to 17 metres in length will be installed in the Bay of Fundy this fall. (Canadian Press) The project, first announced in January 2008, would set up a $10-million research facility to test underwater turbines to convert tidal energy into electricity, subject to passing a strategic environmental assessment. The Environment Department said the project has passed the assessment and will be subject to strict conditions to protect the environment. Among the conditions are that Fundy Ocean Research Centre for Energy is responsible for developing a comprehensive environmental effects monitoring program and establishing an environmental effects advisory committee. The marine demonstration site will consist of three underwater berths for turbines located in the Minas Passage, home of the highest tides in the world. Belliveau said he sees tidal power as a way of helping Nova Scotia meet 25 per cent of its energy requirements from renewable sources. But he's also a longtime commercial fisherman who knows the lobstermen in the Bay of Fundy are worried the turbines may change fish migration patterns. "These questions are not going to be addressed unless you have a demonstration project. I think you basically cannot sit in a conference room and get the answer to that," Belliveau said. "You have to go out in the real world. There's going to be further environmental studies that will have to be done if the project is going to go to the next stage, to the commercial. This information will be a valuable tool in making recommendations at that given time." Belliveau said fishermen must be included on an advisory committee, and the companies must monitor the impact of tidal turbines on birds and fish. If there are any adverse consequences, Belliveau said he wouldn't hesitate to quash the project. "The minister of environment has the authority to stop it any time, and I would not hesitate if the science and adverse effects were there," he said. Mark Taylor, who fishes for lobster in the bay, has concerns about the technology, but he said he is willing to accept the environment minister's assurances. "I think we'd be agreeable to that as long as he holds to his word that he will pull them out if there's any effects. I mean we're losing fishing ground as it is and we should be compensated for that, if nothing else," he said. The objectives of the demonstration facility project as proposed by the proponent are to: •Build and operate a tidal energy demonstration facility to test the commercial potential of in-stream tidal-energy devices designed to convert tidal kinetic energy to electrical energy. •Acquire information necessary to assess the performance of tidal energy devices including their effect on the environment and the effect of the environment on the devices. •Develop monitoring techniques and methodologies for these devices in the tidal environment. The three companies chosen for the project are: •Minas Basin Pulp and Power. •Nova Scotia Power. •B.C.-based Clean Current. Nova Scotia Power is working toward putting a commercial-size turbine in the bay by October, while Minas Basin Pulp and Power is aiming for next spring. cbc.ca