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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SouthFloridaGuy who wrote (102219)	9/19/2009 8:29:11 PM
From: Elroy Jetson	3 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

I suspect "strategic defaults" will rise once most believe the real estate market has troughed. It will be at this point that current home owners will have the confidence to purchase a new home and walk away from the mortgage on their existing home. .

To: SouthFloridaGuy who wrote (102219)	9/20/2009 3:48:53 AM
From: Skeeter Bug	6 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

LG, i think believing housing has troughed right here is akin to believing in the tooth fairy - it feels nice, but it just doesn't exist. incomes down. jobs down. overtime down. investments net down (but a nice rise up of late). taxes increasing. millions falling off of unemployment roles (my buddy used to make $100k+ managing a production environment, now he's out selling water Ph balancers). debt levels sky high. housing still way over priced relative to incomes that are evaporating. yes, i know baghdad bernanke is saying the recession may be over (bernanke also the recession may not be over...), but betting against bernanke has been the easiest money in the world since he's been in office. wall street doesn't rule the main street. i know that is a concept some folks don't seem to be able to get. main street is being bled here. wall street got the welfare for bad bets and the government got their 30 modern day equivalent of 30 shekels of silver. the credit bubble is effectively over in the private sector. the government is trying to replace this lack of desire for debt, but that game is already long in the tooth. look for housing to be down again this time next year.