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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (55194)	9/20/2009 12:55:22 AM
From: carranza2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217546

Against all bearish instincts, I am forced to conclude after review of r/decent data and astute commentary that the recovery in the US will surprise for its strength, that as a result US shares will do very well in the near term, and that the new challenge facing the PTB [powers that be] will be the timing of the withdrawal of the well-spiked punch bowl. At least this is what two reputable economic forecasting services say, and one - the better of the two - says a strong recovery is unambiguously certain. I pay close attention when neutrals with no mutts in the fight make these kinds of statements. I have made a small foray into traditional equities as a result, NUE, because I know it fairly well and because astute commentator suggested it. But that, along with silver via HL, is the only change I've made. Oh, and a small tranche of FCG, a basket of US natgas producers. Natural gas is being practically given away, has been at historical lows, so the upside potential is enormous. No muss, no fuss, a simple waiting game with the only decision to be made is the timing of the sale after the inevitable return to the mean takes place. The year has been fairly good to me, but assuredly not as good as the geniuses who bought equities hand-over-fist in March. I've slept better, however. And did not take inordinate risks. Good to hear about La Femme Coconut, she's going to be a pistol. Son is becoming champion swimmer thanks to my philosophy that the best way to raise a boy is to keep him tired. Unexpectedly becoming a major military historian, esp. US Civil War and WWII, source of this recent obsession is unknown. Perhaps he is Patton reincarnated. God help us. I think volatility is pretty much dead for the time being. But don't be surprised to see some major moves up in US equities this Fall. Somewhere, somehow a new bubble is becoming inflated. Or we could be in the closing jaws of a bear rally. In any event, I am protected and it seems you are too. Capital is a b**** to replace. I think HK RE is a beautiful thing...just think of all those recently wealthy mainland guys with money to burn.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (55194)	9/20/2009 2:33:19 AM
From: prosperous	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217546

Your portfolio should do very well should inflation pick up (its a bet that we recover from here). Should there be any sort of dislocation in US treasuries market in future, both china and Hong Kong's holdings of US treasuries is a significant percentage of their GDP and a ripple could be felt for a while by both creating deflationary force and the real estate may not do as well holding its value. If you consider that possibility a very small one (which might be a reasonable assumption) it seems the port should do well but to me it does not seem consistent with your past thinking on how US has been handling its debt. Hope you do well either way.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (55194)	9/20/2009 2:38:35 PM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 217546

Brazil Companies to Step Up Overseas Takeovers, as the domestic economy recovers from a recession and the local currency gains, according to Rothschild, the country’s top mergers and acquisitions adviser. Brazil Companies to Step Up Overseas Takeovers, Rothschild Says Share \| Email \| Print \| A A A By Telma Marotto and Francisco Marcelino Sept. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Brazilian companies are prepared to step up international takeovers as the domestic economy recovers from a recession and the local currency gains, according to Rothschild, the country’s top mergers and acquisitions adviser. “The mood is for more growth and consolidation,” Luiz O. Muniz, 47, the head of investment banking in Brazil, said in an interview in Sao Paulo. “Business leaders stopped worrying about economic problems to think of their own business.” Rothschild surpassed Morgan Stanley this week as the biggest adviser on Brazilian takeovers after helping JBS SA acquire Pilgrim’s Pride in the U.S., according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Sao Paulo-based JBS will pay $800 million for a 64 percent stake in Pilgrim’s Pride to diversify into poultry, and also bought Sao Paulo-based Bertin SA, making it the world’s top meat producer, ahead of Tyson Foods Inc. of Springdale, Arkansas. Brazil’s economy, Latin America’s largest, expanded 1.9 percent in the second quarter from the previous three months, emerging from its first recession in six years. Economic Policy Secretary Nelson Barbosa said this week the government may raise its 2010 economy growth forecast to 5 percent from 4.5 percent. The Brazilian real strengthened 29 percent this year against the dollar, the best performance among 16 major currencies tracked by Bloomberg. The currency appreciation also contributes to cross border deals, Muniz said. Rothschild, the world’s largest family owned bank, ranks 11th this year on global mergers and acquisitions, Bloomberg data show. Deals involving Brazilian companies account for almost 16 percent of the company’s total volume this year, according to the data. Rothschild, based in London and Paris, has a team of 10 bankers in Brazil. “Those are our national champions showing their management capacity,” said Muniz, who joined Rothschild in 2003. To contact the reporter on this story: Francisco Marcelino in Sao Paulo at mdeoliveira@bloomberg.netTelma Marotto in Sao Paulo at tmarotto1@bloomberg.net Last Updated: September 18, 2009 10:32 EDT