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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: davesd who wrote (10066)	10/30/1997 5:15:00 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 70976

As far as over capacity...margins at TSMC and UMC are dropping, I suspect that it is because there is enough capacity out there and customers are demanding lower rates. In times of low capacity...the foundry's set the prices and get high margins dave, many of your posts have a decidedly bearish tone to them. Do you really think we are going into another downturn? We are two quarters into the current one. I heard LRCX say that DRAM producers were pulling in equipment for the next generation. I've seen capacity utilization numbers in the range of 86%. NVLS says that things are looking good and none of their asian customers have cancelled orders. KLAC beat EPS forecasts by 12% recently. AMAT has people working OT to fill orders and has 2300 jobs posted. I could go on and on. The bear side has the fact that the HK currency is weakening and interest rates are spiking. That's it. To my knowledge, AMAT does not derive a significant protion of its revs from HK. Please fill me in on the bear side and why you are so down on the equips. We are on the verge of the largest upgrade in semiconductor history and people are bearish?? Unless people stop using computers, driving cars, and making toast, I cannot possibly imagine why ANYONE would be bearish on the equips at these levels. AMAT is currently trading at ~14.85 next years consensus. This for a company which should see growth in excess of 30% for the coming years. Where were you when the stock was $54?? BK

To: davesd who wrote (10066)	10/30/1997 5:47:00 PM
From: Kumar Nathan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Dave: I was predicting that china will be a huge market. They are investing heavily on networking infrastructure. Just today they announced that they lift any tarrifs on semiconductor products, including computers. Therefore imagine the growth there. Secondly, I heard a rumor sometime ago that the government of Malaysia was talking to Sun and Oracle to install Network PC throughtout the country. It is like having a utility connection to every household. This was a rumour I heard some 2 months ago. That was before their currency crisis. But the point here is that they are proceeding that route with an intention of providing computing power to every household but at the same time maintaining control on what they talk and see etc., ( Since there is a centralized server to monitor their activity). Assuming this makes some sense, it implies that there is a huge growth in the PC industry, whether, network PC or stand-alone PC. You need massive production capacity to cater this. I hope I make sense Regards Kumar