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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Snowshoe who wrote (55327)	9/22/2009 6:02:40 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 217789

thanks. Landscaping chnaging much faster than I had envisaged.

To: Snowshoe who wrote (55327)	9/22/2009 6:34:50 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 217789

report from the boyz at the clsa conference player #1: Just trying to square the circle. If I understand correctly, by the end of this year the Japanese Government will be borrowing more than Japanese citizens and corporates save, which means they'll need outside borrowing to fund their deficit. Now to the US: Eric Fishwick at CLSA predicts that China will be running a trade deficit and current account deficit within the next 12 months. He says in fact, "We anticipate that its forex reserves will fall from US$2,279 Billion at end-2009 to US$2,000 Billion at end-2010." (China may be anticipating this as almost all US Treasuries purchased by China this year appear to be short-duration US Treasury Bills). If that is true, then who in the world is going to finance the US budget deficit of US$1+ Trillion next year, especially if China becomes a net seller? It seems to me that the already steep yield curves in both Japan and the US are set to become much, much steeper in the next 12-24 months. If so, doesn't that crowd out private sector borrowing and raise the cost of capital for companies and homebuyers? The only other alternative is for the Fed to resume its Treasury purchases, in effect printing more money and putting even more downward pressure on the US Dollar. Steeper yield curves in the short term and potential capital controls in the longer term? Or am I missing something? player #2: The US will continue to monetize. player #1: Went to the Goldbullion.com presentation at the CLSA Conference this afternoon. Overflow crowd of approximately 130 attendees..... i am expecting to get together with the boyz on friday for lunch, and then facilitating them to massive-buy of bullion.