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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Maurice Winn who wrote (55455)9/24/2009 7:27:59 PM
From: TobagoJack  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 217749
 
just in in-tray, per GREED n fear

· A giant sigh of relief is the most obvious sentiment on display at the 16th CLSA Investors’ Forum in Hong Kong this week. This poses again the question whether the relief rally is over as consensus has now swung firmly to the view that it is a cyclical bull market in America.

· If the US stock market can make it through the traditionally tricky seasonal period of September and October, it will be positioned for a melt up into year end as professional long only fund managers will be motivated to chase performance. In GREED & fear’s view the likely area of resistance will then be around the 1,200 level on the S&P500.

· At that sort of level GREED & fear would be happy to short the S&P500 on a naked basis. From an Asian perspective it would also then make tactical sense to reduce beta aggressively on a tactical basis while waiting to see how “decoupling” Asian performs in the context of the stress test provided by a proper US correction.

· GREED & fear’s short term tactical guess is that it is going to be much clearer in the first half of 2010 whether the American economy is really recovering whereas for now the market is still celebrating the inventory cycle. It is also likely to celebrate any month on month improvements in depressed US consumption data.

· GREED & fear’s fundamental view is still that the Western economy remains in a deflationary condition where there remains a significant risk of a liquidity trap. Investors need to keep a close eye on American bank lending data which continues to decline. If it really is a deleveraging cycle as GREED & fear thinks, then bank lending is not going to pick up sharply unlike in previous recessions.

· The bulk of securitisation activity in America remains concentrated in the government-backed “agency” mortgage backed securities market. It is certainly not impossible that securitisation “comes back” given the government rescue of a broken financial sector. Still for now GREED & fear will remain highly sceptical until presented with hard evidence to the contrary.

· The US consumption story is not just about leverage. It is also about psychology. The view here remains that the psychology of the American consumer has changed as the financially feckless baby boomers start to hit retirement age.

· The IMF is yet again doing the world a disserve by acting as a lobbying group for the securitised debt peddlers. It is true that the collapse of securitisation represents a massive deflationary risk for the global economy. But that does not mean that the answer is to allow a new free-for-all in securitisation.

· It remains amazing how few people are calling for the introduction of some modernised version of the Glass-Steagall Act separating the risky business of securities trading from the business of taking government guaranteed deposits. In GREED & fear’s view this is a fundamental issue that cannot be dodged.

· Hong Kong is as good a candidate as any in Asia for GREED & fear’s anticipated asset bubble. For now the residential property sector is climbing the proverbial wall of worry. The high end market is now being driven at the margin by mainland buyers.

· Clearly Hong Kong property will be vulnerable to periodic scares about renewed Fed tightening. Still in GREED & fear’s view any interest rate hike next year remains highly unlikely. It is clear that Billyboy is still much more focused on the deflationary risk.

· If the likely extended period of easy money in the West creates all the ingredients for an asset bubble in Asia, it is also the case that there will be efforts to tighten incrementally in Asia, if not dramatically. The recent correction in China A shares should be seen as a lead indicator of the correction which is likely to come sooner or later in the rest of Asia as and when the S&P500 corrects.


· GREED & fear’s guess is that the Reserve Bank of India will be the first central bank in Asia to raise interest rates. The Indian economy is growing healthily and the domestic demand driven nature of the economy means that its policy makers will be less concerned about external demand. GREED & fear would view any such tightening move by the RBI as a reason not to sell India, but rather to add on weakness.

· The launching of CLSA’s China Brands Index research report this month is extremely timely as China moves up the curve in terms of discretionary consumption, despite its wholly deserved reputation as an investment dominated economy.



To: Maurice Winn who wrote (55455)9/25/2009 9:12:44 AM
From: elmatador  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 217749
 
The power of mobile money: Mobile phones have transformed lives in the poor world. Mobile money could have just as big an impact

Well, gentlemen, here is the result of Elmat's pole climbing in those God Forsaken countries...

The power of mobile money
Sep 24th 2009
From The Economist print edition

ONCE the toys of rich yuppies, mobile phones have evolved in a few short years to become tools of economic empowerment for the world’s poorest people. These phones compensate for inadequate infrastructure, such as bad roads and slow postal services, allowing information to move more freely, making markets more efficient and unleashing entrepreneurship. All this has a direct impact on economic growth: an extra ten phones per 100 people in a typical developing country boosts GDP growth by 0.8 percentage points, according to the World Bank. More than 4 billion handsets are now in use worldwide, three-quarters of them in the developing world (see our special report). Even in Africa, four in ten people now have a mobile phone.

With such phones now so commonplace, a new opportunity beckons: mobile money, which allows cash to travel as quickly as a text message. Across the developing world, corner shops are where people buy vouchers to top up their calling credit. Mobile-money services allow these small retailers to act rather like bank branches. They can take your cash, and (by sending a special kind of text message) credit it to your mobile-money account. You can then transfer money (again, via text message) to other registered users, who can withdraw it by visiting their own local corner shops. You can even send money to people who are not registered users; they receive a text message with a code that can be redeemed for cash.

By far the most successful example of mobile money is M-PESA, launched in 2007 by Safaricom of Kenya. It now has nearly 7m users—not bad for a country of 38m people, 18.3m of whom have mobile phones. M-PESA first became popular as a way for young, male urban migrants to send money back to their families in the countryside. It is now used to pay for everything from school fees (no need to queue up at the bank every month to hand over a wad of bills) to taxis (drivers like it because they are carrying around less cash). Similar schemes are popular in the Philippines and South Africa.

Banking on it
Extending mobile money to other poor countries, particularly in Africa and Asia, would have a huge impact. It is a faster, cheaper and safer way to transfer money than the alternatives, such as slow, costly transfers via banks and post offices, or handing an envelope of cash to a bus driver. Rather than spend a day travelling by bus to the nearest bank, recipients in rural areas can spend their time doing more productive things. The incomes of Kenyan households using M-PESA have increased by 5-30% since they started mobile banking, according to a recent study.

Mobile money also provides a stepping stone to formal financial services for the billions of people who lack access to savings accounts, credit and insurance. Although for regulatory reasons M-PESA accounts do not pay interest, the service is used by some people as a savings account. Having even a small cushion of savings to fall back on allows people to deal with unexpected expenses, such as medical treatment, without having to sell a cow or take a child out of school. Mobile banking is safer than storing wealth in the form of cattle (which can become diseased and die), gold (which can be stolen), in neighbourhood savings schemes (which may be fraudulent) or by stuffing banknotes into a mattress. In the Maldives many people lost their savings in the tsunami of 2004; it hopes to introduce universal mobile banking next year.

Financial innovation has a bad reputation at the moment, because exotic derivatives were one of the causes of the credit crunch. But mobile money and other new ideas that could help the poor (see article) provide a useful reminder that financial innovation in itself is not always a bad thing.

Given all of its benefits, why is mobile money not more widespread? Its progress has been impeded by banks, which fear that mobile operators will eat their lunch, and by regulators, who worry that mobile-money schemes will be abused by fraudsters and money-launderers. In many countries mobile money has been blocked because operators do not have banking licences and their networks of corner-shop retailers do not meet the strict criteria for formal bank branches. And some mobile-money schemes that have been launched, such as one in Tanzania, failed to catch on. As recently as a year ago people wondered whether M-PESA’s success was a fluke.

Out of Africa, always something new
But in recent months there have been some more hopeful signs. Kenya’s success story has demonstrated mobile money’s potential, and its benefits are starting to be more widely appreciated. More enlightened regulators are no longer insisting that these services meet the rigid rules for formal banking. Some banks, meanwhile, have come to see mobile money not as a threat but as an opportunity, and are teaming up with operators. And phone companies have studied Kenya closely to learn how to establish and market a successful mobile-money scheme. MTN, Africa’s biggest operator, has launched a mobile-money service in Uganda in conjunction with Standard Bank; it appears to be doing well. MTN is fine-tuning its service in Uganda before rolling it out across Africa.

Banks and regulators elsewhere should take note. Instead of lobbying against mobile money, banks should see it as an exciting chance to exploit telecoms firms’ vast retail networks and powerful brands to reach new customers. Tie-ups between banks and operators will help reassure regulators. But they, too, need to be prepared to be more flexible. People who want to sign up for mobile-money services should not, for example, have to jump through all the hoops required to open a bank account. Concerns about money-laundering can be dealt with by imposing limits (typically $100) on the size of mobile-money transactions, and on the maximum balance. And inflexible rules governing the types of establishments where cash can be paid in and taken out ought to be relaxed.

Mobile money presents a shining opportunity to start a second wave of mobile-led development across the poor world. Operators, banks and regulators should seize it.