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To: Real Man who wrote (394934)	9/25/2009 10:17:10 AM
From: rogermci®	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

Can you let me know the exact timing of the down move? -g- Me thinks we're not quite there but I share your concerns. I thought RIMM would temper the Naz party. No cigar though. AAPL actually + on the day.

To: Real Man who wrote (394934)	9/25/2009 10:39:48 AM
From: carranza2	Respond to of 436258

More recovery bullishness from ECRI, this time with regard to housing: businesscycle.com Home Price UpturnECRI July 29, 2009 (ECRI) - Excerpted from May 2009 report to Professional Members "END OF HOME PRICE DOWNTURN IN SIGHT" "With U.S. home values far below their boom-time highs, most observers are resigned to an indefinite downdraft in home prices. It is this uncertainty about the ultimate bottom in home prices that has converted so many mortgage-related derivatives into toxic assets. Yet, at long last, the end of the home price downturn is in sight. One key reason for the turnaround in the outlook is housing affordability, which is hovering around all-time highs. The current combination of drastically reduced home prices and very low mortgage rates has hardly ever been seen in living memory… Most importantly, the U.S. Leading Home Price Index (USLHPI), designed to predict cyclical turns in real home prices, has now been rising for five months… But a three P’s analysis (see chart on homepage) of the level of the USLHPI reveals an even more promising picture… the recent upturn in the USLHPI is almost as pronounced as the median in comparable past cycles… it is almost as pervasive; and … it is just as persistent. The implication is clear: this is a genuine cyclical upturn in the level of the USLHPI. Such an upturn in the USLHPI amounts to a forecast of a cyclical upturn in the level of home prices this year… ECRI’s apparent optimism about the economy is very much at odds with a stubbornly downbeat consensus. When almost every seasoned analyst is so pessimistic, doubts about the likelihood of an upturn are entirely understandable. But we also know that this is precisely the phase of the business cycle when, in the wake of a major crisis, a “giant error of pessimism” runs rampant. It is therefore especially important to remember at this juncture that the opinions we express are based not on our gut feel, but on a system of objective leading indicators with a stronger theoretical foundation and a more rigorously tried and tested record that any others in existence. Its real-time track record is also unrivaled. Our confidence in their predictive power is based on long experience with these indicators. While more analysts are coming around to our view about the economic recovery, there are plenty that remain doubtful. Only the reality of the recovery will convince such skeptics, but by then it will be much too late for decision makers to take timely steps to stay ahead of the curve. We understand that some will be incredulous about our home price upturn call, coming on the heels of our business cycle recovery forecast… it is worth remembering that our apparent boldness is merely a reflection of what our objective leading indexes are telling us today."