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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SouthFloridaGuy who wrote (102504)	9/25/2009 11:34:43 PM
From: mishedlo	2 Recommendations Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

London Guy we may go in and out of deflation for a decade like Japan. The alternative is a low growth - low inflation environment that will seem like it for a decade. That has been my position for a long time. Maybe it only lasts 5 years. No one knows. But I don't see the Fed hiking for 2 years. If inflation comes roaring back they will be hiking a lot sooner. Mish

To: SouthFloridaGuy who wrote (102504)	9/26/2009 10:50:13 PM
From: John Vosilla	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

'Coupled with recent evidence of housing prices stabilizing and ticking up in some areas, is it possible that deflation may be forestalled for longer than you may have envisioned?' I don't see it in FL. And I am on the ground as close as anyone. At best an "L' since the spring. Don't rely on those broad based press clippings. Could there have been some rush of younger first time buyers and older 40+ 2005 bubble peak cash out repeat buyers taking advantage of the $8k tax credit and much lower prices in some supply constrained hoods with actually job and income growth the past six months tied to stimulus? Sure but I doubt it is anything more than isolated and temporary.. We got a ways to go to clear out those way upside down and (or) unable to afford monthly payments IMHO. I find it hard to believe your market that topped out a good 12-18 months after mine and all the sunbelt ground zero markets is already on a sustained recovery