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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SouthFloridaGuy who wrote (102568)	9/28/2009 12:51:37 AM
From: virtualobserver	2 Recommendations Respond to of 116555

stimulants might have revived the sick economic patient of 2002, but they aren't capable of reanimating the dead body of 2009. Running electricity through it might cause the limbs to jerk about and give the appearance of life from a distance.

To: SouthFloridaGuy who wrote (102568)	9/28/2009 2:40:36 AM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 116555

Lower rates in 2002 led to an incredible reduction in the monthly cost of "owning" a home, which led directly to the asset bubble. Throwing $8K down payments and $4K cash for clunkers is chicken feed compared to the stimulus afforded by lower rates in 2002. The only thing that matters right now is the immense deficit spending by Obama. If that is ever normalized, voluntarily or involuntarily, without a recovery in the private sector, double dip will engulf this terminally ill economy. `BC

To: SouthFloridaGuy who wrote (102568)	9/28/2009 12:56:09 PM
From: Wheaties	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

I think you got it ( definitely me ) wrong. I am neither a bull or bear, just change when it is more profitable. as i said 2008 strong bear, late 2008 went strong bullish, in the next 6 months will go bear again, not total short, maybe bonds when they get sold off. It is absolutely NOT different this time....just make sure you match up the right timelines. C.

To: SouthFloridaGuy who wrote (102568)	9/28/2009 3:40:48 PM
From: ItsAllCyclical	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

The FED's balance sheet has never looked like this before. We've never been at these levels of debt/GDP combined w/0% interest rates, combined w/no bubble left to inflate. Visually you can see how different both the decline and subsequent rise have become vs 2002. The rise in 2002 was at least driven partly by FA. The rise here has been nothing but manipulation and gov. stimulation. There's NO way adding more debt/credit to a credit bubble collapse does anything of value IT/LT. Where reasonable people disagree is if this is the terminal state. Since I see nothing else to inflate I say yes. I agree on stimulus which is why you have to be very careful shorting in this environment. But being a LT bear on the US economy does not mean you need to short as your primary way to make money.