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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Judy who wrote (13255)	10/30/1997 5:51:00 PM
From: AlienTech	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

I was not watching CSCO, But from my gut I would say, CSCO is the next chicken to get their head chopped off.. Very high profile, very high in valuation etc etc.. AMAT-INTC-CSCO.. Wont work with MSFT as MSFT always admits next quarter wont be good and there stock price is too high.. If I was holding CSCO I would get puts in the next big CSCO rally. AMAT just said last month, business is good and going forward its going to be even better.. CYMI proved it as well.. Dosent matter though.. BTW AMAT has almost 10K vacancies.. Why would a company hire that many people if business is going to slow down?

To: Judy who wrote (13255)	10/30/1997 6:01:00 PM
From: MulhollandDrive	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

Judy, the current market right now "feels" like the 3rd quarter of 95 to me.....tech sector especially. Did you happen to hear good ole' Joe Granville on CNBC this a.m.? He said that the extreme volitility is the sign of a bottom or top, he says it's the bottom. FWIW, bp

To: Judy who wrote (13255)	11/9/1997 12:39:00 PM
From: Judy	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 50167

The Market Short-Term On Oct 30th I posted my short-term expectation for the market. Here is the link: techstocks.com Now we have two weeks more of market/economoic data/sentiment indicators which to date corroborate these views. Recent supporting "data". After reviewing the price-volume action and charts for 70 stocks across five or six sectors, this is what I see. Stocks have broken down, are breaking down, or are forming intermediate tops. Stocks/sectors holding up are those where some good news still remain to come, but once the news is out the profits will rapidly come out and the stocks/sectors will move with the market ... DOWN. Oiler drillers have been the darlings, as in days gone by, the semi equipmakers were the darlings. But after the last of the drillers report, what other good news remain on the short-term horizon? Watch the price action in the sector after RIG reports. Moreover a slow down in the driller industry is expected to manifest itself by the end of the year and the market is forward looking. To complete the analogy re: drillers/semi equip both sectors have strong future fundamentals but the market had priced into these stocks what was known. When what is known becomes cloudy ... well, look at the charts. A picture is worth a thousand words ... DOW darlings are topping or consolidating, tech bellweathers stablizing with a downward bias (CSCO holding out so far) small cap techs getting creamed even with supper earnings. Breadth of selling on heavy volume on each market down leg, technical buying on moderate volume on each market upleg with no conviction or leadership whatsoever from the generals. Sentiment indicators: SI bulls who used to buy each dip are now moving to the sidelines. Professional market timers are bearish: Dorsey Wright, Larry McMillian, etc. Agreement among SI regulars on various threads who use different methodologies to arrive at their conclusions. No one stock or sector can reverse this trend. Dozens of techs have reported with strong forward guidance, no banana. CPQ and CSCO could not turn the tide. AMAT, DELL, MSFT remain to report. INTC has calmed the fears, but not turn the short-term trend. Many other indications, but my drift should be clear. Do not be fooled by relieve rallies. A good market bottom needs to be set, but before one can set ... the bottom must be found. Another subject for another post. This post is already too long.