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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: 8bits who wrote (102605)	9/29/2009 4:12:26 PM
From: SouthFloridaGuy	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Probably about the same as the last cycle ~4 years starting from March 09. Probably also a relatively weak bull market compared to historical standards ~125% or so... The current move will probably end around 1200 before a good haircut (10-15%++) next year. But a retest of 660 in the near future is totally out of the question, IMO. You need credit markets to signal and usually it takes another 12 months for equities to respond...credit markets continue to tear - the Merril Lynch high yield index is up 40% this year! I suspect 1500 provides good enough long-term resistance before the next crisis hits. EM should do well. Inventory/Usage ratios are far lower than they have been at the start of other expansion periods. In other words, as bad as the recession was, it should have been worse but was arrested by the stimulus. That means commodity inflationary pressures quicker than people think...probably by 2011 you could see oil over $100 easily...