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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ChanceIs who wrote (124553)	10/1/2009 10:52:57 AM
From: ChanceIs	7 Recommendations Respond to of 206181

Schlesinger Meeting Notes I had intended to include my meeting notes when I posted the presentation. It took two weeks for the presentation to become available online. Cleaning up my desk, I found my notes. Some interesting - some a little stale in memory now three weeks ago: 1) Barnett shale has peaked (already noted up the thread) 2) typical 60%-70% depletion (in Barnett I think) 50% (cited up the thread) is considered good, 3) Fayetteville and Haynesville shales deplete about the same as Barnett, 4) Marcellus shale has never really started (production??? - rigorously tested???) 5) NG production will be in decline in 6-9 months, 6) NG demand up 10 BCF/day by 2020 - if coal continues to be retarded - per EIA 7) if consistent (long range production - perhaps geographical) US will become an LNG exporter, to Euro & Japan 8) "take or pay" '82 crisis - I think that Europe is saddled with a huge amount of take or pay contracts. Will take a while for that market to resolve those issues and for more regular set of market signals to present, 9) Adam Seminski suggested that the government should do a "cash for clunkers" to change a lot of old coal plants in NY, Ohio and PA to NG. Seminski is the chief energy analyst at Deutsche. I respect his opinion in most things. I found cash for clunkers in cars revolting. 10) Euros are "apoplectic" about buying NG from the Russians. (But we all knew that.) Take it for granted tht the Euros are actively looking to diversify NG sources, 11) some comment about justifiable paranoia in energy markets - IOW, there is a lot of hardball out there in the business world. (I know that from personal experience getting long CCGT plants in '00 when the Clintons had begun to neuter coal only to have "W" reverse course. CCGT plants have about doubled in cost to build and there is lots of coal to NG switching going on already. CCGT are sweet today. Would have been OK if my CCGT company hadn't been so leveraged and gone belly up - in no small part due to "W"s retrenchment after lots of chips were down. I still have a pile of Peabody. Coal will be around un plus longtemps) 12) there is a free market for NG storage today, Hope you all found those insights as valuable as I did. I think one more broad market pullback and then its time to load the boat in OSX, E&P, etc. Should be '00 all over.