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Gold/Mining/Energy : Donner Minerals (DML.V) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: VAUGHN who wrote (763)10/30/1997 7:59:00 PM
From: the Chief  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 11676
 
Vaughn, if I may:

You said:I have been in DRZ for a couple of years and ridden the development ups and downs. I suppose a trader would view that as a mugs game and you shouldn't get married to a stock. A trader might have been in and out of several hundred plays over the same time frame but I have never been able to nail the market timing game without missing out on some significant moves.

Here's the "Chief's" theory of investing.(Which is highly flawed)

1) find a stock you want to go long on.
2) buy 1/3 of the stock that you actually want
3a) if the stock drops, buy the other 1/3
3b) if the stock goes up sell that (2nd) 1/3
4) Accept that if you "miss" a huge run up you'll only have 1/3 of the actual total stock you would have liked. Or at best if the run up is quick enough after you have purchased the 2/3 you'll still be holding it.
5)(from 3b) take the profit and wait, if the stock drops repurchase 1/3

If the stock toilets you'll feel privledged that you died with 2/3 of a dud, or
If the stock skyrockets on good news you'll be holding either 1/3 or 2/3 of a stock with a large profit margin with a "reduced in level". Then buy your final 3/3

Summary

A) You are long on 1/3
B) If lucky you may be long on 2/3
c) If you are really really lucky you'll be long on 3/3
d) If you are unlucky you'll be long on a dud with 1/3
e) If you are really unlucky you'll be long on a dud with 2/3

repeat this process until you are "rich" or consumed no more than 536 Large bottles of Pepto

not for everyone, because most people "gotta" have 100% of a stock "right now". Takes a bit of discipline. Rockets like CRN/DRZ are a nightmare if you get in like I did after the runup. In my situation I have to work 10times harder to average down.

The ideal situation is yours, you got in early and can afford to reduce "on strength" 1/3 and pick your 1/3 up on weakness.

by the way I always sign as "Papa Smurf" when I feel like I am giving advice that may not be asked for, or that others may feel like I'm trying to act like some grandfather figure, "Prima Dona" or something.

Papa Smurf

aka

the Chief