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Politics : The Environmentalist Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TigerPaw who wrote (25360)	10/2/2009 4:31:26 AM
From: Maurice Winn	2 Recommendations Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 36918

The climate models which predicted problematic sea level rise in the Pacific Islands of half a metre over the next 100 years were wrong. There was a 5 metre sea level rise in a minute a couple of days ago. None of the models predicted that. But the whole point of the sea level aspect of models is to warn people of danger from sea level rise. As we can see from that event and the others like it, sea level rise due to thermal expansion is irrelevant to actual human life. Wobbling water is much more of an issue. There are much more impressive disasters than the Samoa tsunami going to happen right here in NZ. Get Google Earth and swoop up and down the east coast of NZ and see the swarms of houses built on sand deposited by wave action and ocean and river and harbour water flows. There is a very active volcano called White Island just off the coast of Whakatane and Opotiki. zenbu.co.nz Zoom out a few clicks and observe the island about 50 km off the coast. It's part of a line of volcanic activity running from Mount Egmont in the west, across Ruapehu, Ngauruhoe, Lake Taupo, Rainbow Mountain and out to sea. The shield volcanoes are not a big deal. They just do tame eruptions. But the pumice blasts from the Taupo caldera are something else altogether. It might be that White Island is planning such an event, or one could come from under Matata. But let's ignore those as being too unpleasant to think about and just stick with garden variety eruptions which could come out of White Island. Such a disturbance could cause a very decent sized tsunami 50 km from the coast. As you can imagine, it would take a very short time, measured in seconds rather than hours, for the sudden water level rise to obliterate umpty thousands of houses, other buildings and development and hordes of people who would not have time to scurry uphill because there is no uphill on a sand bank. No doubt, many of the residents in houses less than 5 metres above sea level have calculated that a metre of sea level rise over 100 years due to CO2 won't be a problem for them. They have been misled by the CO2 doomsters into thinking that they should pay any attention at all to sea level rise. It's understandable that they are misled because CO2 is what gets all the attention so people with little knowledge are easily fooled into thinking that the authorities are worrying about the right thing. Mqurice