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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (35580)	10/6/2009 9:16:23 AM
From: Spekulatius	Respond to of 78751

re ATPG - if their NAV calculation and PV10 value of 110$ is correct they should make at the very least 15$-20/share of cash flow within a year of the Telemark startup.

To: Paul Senior who wrote (35580)	10/6/2009 10:02:14 AM
From: Paul Senior	Respond to of 78751

ATPG. Just a note that the stock might be up at the open this morning chiefly or only because the cfo, who seems to speak for the company and can give calm, cheerful, reassuring, positive (of course) outlook/prospects for the company, was interviewed on Bloomberg yesterday afternoon after market close. And he was his usual calm, reassuring, positive self.

To: Paul Senior who wrote (35580)	10/6/2009 10:21:55 AM
From: E_K_S	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78751

RE:ATPG - The one thing that caught my eye in their presentation (page 4) was that they achieved a "...98% success rate converting non-producing properties to producing properties...". Can they continue to have this success rate? Do they need this type of continued success rate on future wells to make that $114.000/share price target? There is just a bit too much leverage and debt for me but I suppose as a small position in a large portfolio of assets could make sense especially w/ a three bagger potential. I do like their exposure to owning and operating off shore deep drilling rig platforms. However they pay no established pattern of dividends but rather keep and own a percentage of the on-going production stream. SFL owns a few of the deep water drilling rigs and builds in a profit sharing percentage that is added to their fixed return. The shareholder receives a steady dividend (now around 10%). Their quarterly profit sharing amounts can amount to as much as 25% of the annual dividend income paid. When I look at these different energy asset plays, I find that it's all about the proven reserves they have, how fast they can replace their reserves (based on the company's previous record of success) and the income stream generated from the active wells in operation. I was surprised to find that NG wells in general can produce for a long time (as along as 20-30 years!). I have bee researching Williams Companies, Inc. (WMB) and a sister company, Williams Pipeline Partners L.P. (WMZ) a MLP with interests in their pipeline operations. The MLP pays a 6% dividend, owns an interest in a very steady cash flow stream from the pipeline (transportation) operation but has limited up side from exploration or new NG well development. If you want just the income (from the pipeline operations), you buy the MLP and if you want exposure to the NG exploration, well development & production and also own an interest in their network of pipelines, you buy WMB. My preference is to own a huge diversified company like COP that owns a bit of everything and does not have so much debit spread across a few potential high production assets like ATPG. If ATPG hits their discovery wells, there is a huge potential return. EKS

To: Paul Senior who wrote (35580)	10/6/2009 2:47:34 PM
From: Madharry	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78751

despite the intraweek reversal of my technical indicators into positive territory i continue to be skeptical about this rally. I sold my linta again and the balance of mpel . i continue to own a large losing position in melco on the hk echange. silver and gold stocks continue to do well. and as far as financials and real estate goes, no matter what GS says its a case of the emperor having no clothes. the truth is no one knows what the banks got and at least in the past you were getting a dividend you thought was secure. now you can be confident of getting zilch. Why invest in a black box for no discernible return? I watching the balance of my posco carefully . i keep reading reports of overcapcity in the steel industry in both china and the usa and i dont see how that can be good for posco. perhaps i am overly nervous, but this seems to me to be an escape from declining currency driven rally and i wonder how long that can last.