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Strategies & Market Trends : APMP (formerly APM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wayners who wrote (7901)	10/31/1997 10:14:00 AM
From: appro	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 13456

>>How do YOU pick your entry and exit points. Is it mechanical or more gut instinct<< Combo....I start with fundamental analysis via ValueLine T1 or T2 or some such (I'm not rigid about that), then use technical analysis. For TA, I have been using Omega Research SuperCharts, perusing short, medium, and long term Price Channel Breaks, MACD (moving ave convergence-divergence), on-balance volume, and OR's expert system to narrow my list of situations. AND thennnn...I let the SuperCharts automatically back test and optimize key indicators (APM fits two daily %retracement oscillators and couple of other lesser fits such as 7-day weighted price channel break). I review the odds, SuperCharts optimization system will not only show most successful indicator (say 8 day vs 10 da avg %R but also show what percent of trades in the history (two years for daily trader) were profitable and the limits such as how long long winners held, avg winner, max winner, etc, same for long losers, shorts, ad infinitum. I try to learn everything I can about the company and the sponsorship psychology of its investors. Finally, I use gut instincts from being on the front line daily to opportunistically jump in and out. I.E. I did not hold out for 22 1/2 purchase and will not hold out for $26 to sell. Sell point will be determined by the amount of time and price action to get "there". If it hits 24 3/4 same day, I am out. Otherwise, second day I may be looking for exit at 25 if I am still feeling full of vinegar, or 22 3/4 if I am getting sick to my stomach. It has worked pretty well in this Mother of all bull markets. I have only been doing this for five years, and have made a lot of costly painful mistakes. Each one retunes my gut and I have really been getting better in recent years. I tried posting my entry /exit points some time back, but felt guilty when I was doing well and someone else was angry about losing big and blasting my system (not sure that poster even knew my style). It just made me realize, I might have sounded like gloating at a time someone else caught in unexpected downdraft. I realize our shoes could be reversed just as easily a month later, but someone in pain may not feel same. I figure discretion is better part of valor. I take long and frequent breaks. What I do is intense work, not investing and it pays well enough I can afford to go to all cash if I am nervous, tired or just do not feel the spirit moving me. My most consistent successes started the day I set a weekly money management goal of how much I have to make. That helps me to get out even when things seem too good to be true, and also when it is just not working. Mostly gut level, in final analysis. One reason I try not to make many predictions is I can change on a dime if I realize it is going against me (preservation of capital is #1). Sorry for the monologue.