Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (35607)	10/30/2009 7:20:33 PM
From: E_K_S	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 78763

Hi Paul - RE: SFL Increased my SFL position by 30%. Now in my top 10 positions (#6). SFL pays a qualified dividend now yielding 10.5%. The company also offers a dividend reinvestment option for stock at a 5% discount (to the 12 day market avg) which should continue for a limited period. The last time I checked, the company's average lease contract period was 14 years across their entire fleet. The PE is 4.5 and analysts have next year earnings at $2.48/share. BV is around $9.00/share. Their most expensive assets are their deep water drill rigs which are probably worth more today and currently generate the largest long term income streams. I expect the market to be in a trading range foe the next 12-18 months and am looking to generate income for the portfolio. The kicker for SFL is if oil does move higher, they participate in profit sharing agreements on several of their lease contracts (specifically the deep water drill rigs). They receive a percentage of the income exceeding their base amount. My previous buys were at $16 (5/2006) and $12 (10/2008) and sells at $29.00 (7/2008) and $23.00 (9/2008). I missed loading up in Feb-April 2008 @ $5.00-$8.00 but have had my dividend reinvested since they began offering it last year. The weekly SMA for SFL is right around $11.00/share and the daily SMA is around $12.50/share. At current prices ($11.00-$12.00) the stock seems like a good value. My two year target price is around $20.00/share and if they raise their dividend next year to 2007/2008 levels, that is not an unreasonable price to expect. ================================================================ I was looking to unwind 1/2 of my Stimulus trade that I put on in 08/2009 with SIEMENS A G ADR (NYSE: SI) and ABB LTD (NYSE: ABB) but was too late in getting out. ABB is back to where I bought it and SI gave back 50% of my profits in the last three trading days. I think the selling was over done but want to be out before the stimulus money runs out late next year. Good job on selling some of your UTX as you hit close to the recovery high. As these companies traded well above the 50 day SMA, it was only a matter of time before they tested the trend line. If the daily SMA trend lines do not hold, the weekly 50 SMA is much lower (10%-14% lower). Don't know if we will test these weekly 50 SMA levels, but I want to be out of my speculative buys if we do. In this market, it is better to exit the position and come back latter once all the sellers have exited. EKS