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Politics : Rat's Nest - Chronicles of Collapse -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: SiouxPal who wrote (9606)10/10/2009 9:59:13 AM
From: Wharf Rat  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 24211
 
Meme Watch: Peak Demand
by Geoff Styles on 10/09/2009 10:43

To whatever degree the oil price spike of 2007-8 was driven by speculation, the latter was riding on a wave of concern about Peak Oil, which anticipates an imminent decline in maximum global oil production. For the moment, the weak global economy has eased such worries, though they have hardly vanished, as I noted two months ago. Lately, however, conventional notions of Peak Oil are increasingly being challenged by a new meme, or contagious idea, called Peak Demand, which suggests that oil consumption is reaching a plateau from which it will soon decline, mitigating the worst consequences of Peak Oil. Neither of these memes would attract much interest if they weren't supported by a welter of statistics, however selective those might seem to their critics. And just as Peak Oil was much less credible and worrisome before we saw super-giant oil fields like Mexico's Cantarell go into precipitous decline, the logic of Peak Demand would have been much less compelling before US oil demand dropped by nearly 6% last year.

Earlier this week, a friend shared a copy of a report from Deutsche Bank Global Markets Research describing their view of the future oil market shaped by coinciding--and related--peaks in global oil supply and demand. Unfortunately, the report doesn't seem to be available on DB's public website, though it was recently summarized on the Wall St. Journal's Environmental Capital blog. While I spotted several possible weak points in their analysis, they make a strong case that the combination of improved efficiency and the electrification of vehicles will result in the global demand for oil stalling and eventually falling, roughly around the same time many analysts expect global oil supplies to peak.

Perhaps I was predisposed to accept this logic. My presentation on the Alternative Energy panel of the recent IHS Herold Pacesetters Energy Conference included a graph highlighting the ongoing compression of US petroleum gasoline demand between falling motor fuel consumption and rising biofuels supplies, a topic that was subsequently reported in the Journal's "Heard on the Street" column. At that same conference I also heard the Managing Director of CERA's Global Oil Group describe his firm's rigorously researched view of an impending peak in global oil demand. Peak Demand can't easily be dismissed as a "fringe" theory, because it is based on a combination of hard data and thoughtful analysis and forecasting.

My purpose in mentioning Peak Demand now isn't to debate its merits in depth; that's a matter for another day. Rather, on the basis of my conviction that there's at least a reasonable case for such an outcome, I thought I'd spend a moment musing on the consequences of the proliferation of this meme in the marketplace of ideas related to energy. After all, the Peak Demand meme challenges two key pieces of conventional wisdom about oil, one or both of which are central to the rate at which Peak Oil (supply) might be approaching. First, it undermines the notion that once the US economy finds its way back to meaningful growth, oil demand will resume its former trajectory, which had seen gasoline demand growing by 1-2% per year and diesel demand growing at an even faster pace. With a major new emphasis on miles per gallon and the demise of the SUV fad, the fuel economy of the total US car fleet doesn't need to improve by very much each year to outpace our underlying population growth and a modest resurgence in vehicle miles traveled. Secondly, the same dynamic might even hold true for large developing markets, if electric vehicle demand grew rapidly enough, undermining the notion that whatever happens in the US and EU, oil demand from China and India constitute an unstoppable juggernaut.

With spare global oil production capacity effectively used up by 2007, the logic of Peak Oil helped to provide the narrative support for an oil market that ran up from the low $50s to $145 per barrel in the course of 18 months. How different might a future oil price spike be, if instead of a widely-shared view that oil was on the verge of becoming truly scarce--rather than merely expensive--there were an equally widely-held expectation that in the long run that scarcity might become irrelevant as a result of the demand for the commodity gradually unwinding of its own accord? Such dueling memes, together with painful memories of oil's collapse down to $33 last winter, might give some traders pause, before again buying into the notion that $100 oil would soon give way to $200, $300, or $500 per barrel.

theenergycollective.com



To: SiouxPal who wrote (9606)10/22/2009 10:10:32 AM
From: Wharf Rat  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 24211
 
My favorte gardening tool...

HOW TO MAKE COMPOST
Composting is a technique used to accelerate the natural decay process- The technique converts organic wastes to a mulch which is used to fertilize and condition soil. Leaf waste decomposes naturally in about two years. Composting can take as long as a year or as little as 14 days, depending upon the amount of human control.

COMPOSTABLE MATERIALS

Most yard wastes can be composted, including leaves, grass clippings, plant stalks, vines, weeds; twigs and branches- Compostable food wastes include fruit and vegetable scraps, coffee grounds, eggshells and nutshells.

Other compostable materials are hair clippings, feathers, straw, livestock manure, bonemeal and bloodmeal.

Materials should NOT be composted if they promote disease, cause odors, attract pests, or create other nuisances. These include meat, fish, poultry, dairy products, foods containing animal fats, human/pet feces, weeds with developed seed heads, and plants infected with or highly susceptible to disease, such as roses and peonies.

Materials that should be composted only in limited amounts include wood ashes (a source of lime), sawdust (requires extra nitrogen), plants treated with herbicides or pesticides (the chemicals need time for thorough decomposition), and black and white newsprint (composts slowly, so it should comprise no more than 10% by weight of the total pile).

COMPOSTING REQUIREMENTS

SHREDDED ORGANIC WASTES. Shredding, chopping or even bruising organic materials hastens decay. One way to shred leaves is to mow the lawn before raking, collecting the shredded leaves in the mower bag. It takes at least 3-4 cubic feet of shredded material to form a compost pile.

GOOD LOCATION. The compost pile should be located in a warm area and protected from overexposure to wind and too much direct sunlight. While heat and air facilitate composting, overexposure dries the materials. The location should not offend neighbors.

NITROGEN. Nitrogin accelerates composting. Good sources include fresh grass clippings, manure, bloodmeal and nitrogenous fertilizer. Lime should be used sparingly if at all. It enhances decomposition, but too much causes nitrogen loss, and it usually isn't necessary unless the pile contains large amounts of pine and spruce needles or fruit wastes.

AIR. The compost pile and its enclosure should be well ventilated. Some decay will occur without oxygen, but the process is slow and causes odors.

WATER. Materials in the compost pile should be kept as moist as a squeezed sponge. Too little or too much water retards decomposition. Overwatering causes odors and loss of nutrients.

BUILDING AN ENCLOSURE

Enclosing the compost pile saves space and prevents litter. The enclosure should be collapsible or provide an entry large enough to permit the pile to be turned. It should measure at least 4'X4'X4' (a pile under 3 cubic feet generally does not decompose properly), but no taller than 6' (too much weight causes compaction and loss of oxygen). The enclosure can be built of wood, pallets, hay bales, cinder blocks, stakes and chicken wire, or snow fencing. Prefabricated compost bins are also available.

BUILDING THE PILE

Aside from the basic requirements for decomposition and preventing odors and other nuisances, there is no set method for building a compost pile. One technique may be faster than another, but a variety of methods work well. Piles can be built in layers to ensure the proper proportion of carbon (e.g., leaves, woody materials) to nitrogen (grass, fertilizer), but the layers should be thoroughly intermixed after the pile is built.

MAINTENANCE

Turning and mixing the pile with a pitchfork or shovel; or shifting it into another bin; provides the oxygen necessary for decomposition and compensates for excess moisture. A pile that is not mixed may take 3-4 times longer to decompose. Recommendations for mixing the pile vary from every 3 days to every 6 weeks. More frequent turning results in faster composting. Odors indicate that the pile is too damp or lacks oxygen, and that more frequent turning is necessary.

Occasional watering may be necessary to keep the pile damp, especially in dry weather. Covering the pile with black plastic reduces the need for watering; it also prevents rainwater from leaching out the nutrients. A pile that is decomposing properly should generate temperatures of 140°-160°F at its center. The heat kills most weed seeds, insect eggs and diseases. The pile should be turned when the center begins to cool. Turning the pile maintains the temperature and ensures that all material is exposed to the center heat. When the compost is finished, the pile will no longer heat up. Small amounts of fresh materials may be added but should be buried inside the pile to avoid pests and speed composting. It is better to add fresh materials to a new pile.

FINISHED COMPOST

Finished compost is dark brown, crumbly, and has an earthy odor. Depending upon seasonal temperatures, a well-built, well-tended pile generally yields finished compost in 2 weeks to 4 months. An unattended pile made with unshredded material may take longer than a year to decompose.

SAMPLE INSTRUCTIONS FOR FAST COMPOSTING

• shredded leaves (about 2/3 by volume)

• fresh grass clippings (about 1/3 by volume, or slightly more for faster decomposition)

• kitchen scraps (grind in blender)

Begin the pile with a 411 layer of leaves. Add a 2" layer of grass dippings. Repeat the layers until the pile is about 4' high, then add the kitchen scraps. Chop vertically through the pile with the tines of a pitchfork to thoroughly bruise and mix the materials. Add just enough water to moisten the pile, then cover it with a black plastic garbage bag. Using the same chopping technique, turn the pile on the second day after the pile is built, again on the fourth day, then every three days until the compost is finished. Except in dry weather, no further watering should be necessary. The compost should be finished in about two weeks.

ALTERNATE COMPOSTING METHODS

Compost can be made in a garbage can. band or drum—that has a secure lid. Drill holes in the sides and bottom of the container to allow for air circulation and water drainage, and place it upright on blocks- Fill 3/4 of the container with organic wastes, add a little nitrogenous fertilizer (about 1/4 cup for a 55-gallon barrel), and moisten the materials. Every few days shake the container or turn it on its side and roll it to mix the compost. The lid should be removed after turning to allow air penetration. This method yields finished compost in about 2-4 months.

Another method is to use a 30 or 40 gallon plastic garbage bag. Fill the bag with organic materials, nitrogen and lime (one cup per bag helps counteract addity caused by anaerobic composting). Shake well to mix materials. Add about 1 quart of water and close the bag tightly. Bags can be stored outdoors in the summer and in a heated basement or garage during the winter. No fuming or additional water is necessary. The compost should be finished in about 6-12 months.

FOR MORE INFORMATION

Questions about composting may be addressed to your DEP regional office or to the central office in Harrisburg.Books containing detailed information can be found in bookstores, lawn and garden centers, and your local library.
susquehanna.extension.psu.edu



To: SiouxPal who wrote (9606)11/27/2009 10:16:01 AM
From: Wharf Rat  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 24211
 
Probably more for northern states than Fla; you have different problems.

Home & Garden: Extending the Gardening Season
11/25/2009 11:00:00 AM
by Georgeanne Davis

I love Edith Piaf's "Non, Je ne regrette rien," and hope some year I'll be singing that tune as I look at the garden season just past. But not this year. With very heavy frost now setting in most mornings, I have good reason to regret not putting more fall garden plots in under cover.

I used to feel that by Thanksgiving the garden could be put to bed and forgotten for a few months. But in my neighborhood hoop tunnels have been springing up like mushrooms, and I've been eyeing them with envy, thinking of the radicchio and kale, beets and mesclun that might dwell beneath their covers. In my own garden, the winter greens are nearly gone and mesclun growth is slowing as the plants shiver under their too-light blanket of row cover. True, it's almost Thanksgiving and I'm still, with only a bit of effort expended to extend the season, eating homegrown salads, but with some extra effort, I could be the Eliot Coleman of the St. George peninsula.

There are more reasons than ever to make that effort. The later into the fall that I eat my own greens, the more I dread relying on salad greens shipped in bags from California that seem more tasteless with every passing winter, and the price grows increasingly prohibitive. As energy investment banker Matthew Simmons said in his recent keynote address at the Island Institute's Sustainable Island Living Conference, "We should end global food and rely on local food. In my opinion, it is the energy content that will end global food." Elaborating, Simmons said that the cost to obtain increasingly scarce fuel in the future will preclude international or transnational transport of food via truck.

Hoop tunnels serve functions other than cold protection: at planting time the lightest coverings can shade seedlings from the sun, and they also protect mature plants from deer predation in fall, or at least that's been my experience - even with row cover set directly on greens, the deer seem to leave them alone.

There are changes I need to make to have a better fall garden. Not going overboard on strictly summer plantings is one of them. I plant way too many tomatoes, and leave them in until frost, tying up beds that could be better used for fall chards, kales, carrots, beets, winter greens like escaroles and endives, spinach, leeks, braising greens and cole crops. When the blight hit my tomatoes this year, I suddenly realized how much space they used up in the garden and decided to firmly limit myself to no more than a dozen plants next year. Bottom line: the cool fog of the peninsula makes it hard to get a good tomato crop, so why not take the path of least resistance and plant cool-weather crops instead?





Anyone planning on extending their gardening season can learn a lot from Eliot Coleman's newest offering, The Winter Harvest Handbook (Chelsea Green), the follow-up to Four-Season Harvest. But for purely technical advice on making a hoop tunnel, there are well-illustrated instructions available at the Samuel Roberts Noble Foundation's web site, www.noble.org/Ag/Horticulture/Rai-sedBedGardening/mini_tunnel2.html. These instructions address the problem of securing the covers well yet making it possible to easily open them to get at the beds.

I see this as a possible scenario/timeline: plant fall crops in late July, when early lettuce and peas come out, and in August and early September when beans and other crops finish up, and loosely cover the new rows with lightweight row cover to shade them and keep moisture in and encourage germination. Place fasteners on the sides of the beds that will eventually hold the hoops. Put hoops with their plastic covers in place by late September. The row cover can still be left on the plants for extra protection or a layer of even heavier row cover placed on top of the lighter weight material. The recommended winter covering for the hoop tunnels is UV-resistant, high-quality plastic specifically designed for greenhouses and low tunnels. Construction-grade plastic can be used, but it degrades quickly in sunlight and if it breaks up, pieces it can be blown all over the neighborhood.

Extending the season means extra juggling of materials and managing of crops and plantings, but I think that once there's a rhythm established and the tasks are spread

out over the season, it will become easier and the satisfaction of having late-season salads and greens makes it all worthwhile.
freepressonline.com