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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (45545)	10/10/2009 9:28:49 PM
From: Sam	2 Recommendations Respond to of 95765

Thanks, Don. Let's see what the estimates look like in 2 weeks, after they've reported Q3 earnings. I think there will be a blowout, but there are three question marks: (1) how their new L&R contract with Samsung will play out; (2) what progress they are making on SSDs; and (3) what level of cost reductions can be expected for Q4 (they promised substantial reductions in the last CC, but didn't quantify them; I'm sure they will be pressed to be more specific, although who knows if they will do so). There is also a ITC verdict due on Oct 23, a few days after the report. If Sandisk wins, it will make up a good deal of the L&R income lost from Samsung; if they lose, it won't be disastrous, but it won't be good for them either. The stock will get hit if they lose, unclear by how much. Any estimates for '11 are pure guesses at this point. No one really knows how supply/demand will be balanced for NAND. Depends on the demand side in good part on how SSDs are accepted, and how mobile phones continue to grow. There are also digital camcorders, a market which is just beginning right now, and which could be material although definitely not the size of SSDs and mobile phones. Right now, the supply side looks pretty good, since currently no one is building new NAND fabs, they are depending solely on process improvements.

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (45545)	10/10/2009 11:47:40 PM
From: Sam	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95765

Don, here is an article that I may have posted back in August when it first came out, but it is still relevant to the NAND environment and the 1-2 year prospects for Sandisk. Years of high NAND memory prices coming, says IC Insights Peter Clarke EE Times Europe 08/27/2009 4:50 PM LONDON — The flash memory market is about to go through a change from a situation that favored buyers to one that will favor NAND flash memory suppliers over the next few years, according to IC Insights' recently released mid-year update to the McClean Report. Unit shipments and bit volume demand is set to increase but there has been a declining investment in flash memory manufacturing capacity for a couple of years now. IC Insights reckons that in 2009 capital expenditure dedicated to flash memory will fall to 25 percent of the previous year at about $3 billion. The result will be upward pressure on average selling prices through 2012 at least. The volume of NAND flash memory unit sales is set to increase 2009 despite the economic challenges, IC Insights states. Driven by demand for handheld and wireless consumer, computer and communications devices flash bit volumes increased by triple-digit figures between 2005 and 2008. NAND flash bit volume is forecast to increase by 83 percent in 2009 and is expected to double each year through 2013. No significant expansion of capex spending plans has been announced for 2010, according to IC Insights. The resulting rise in ASPs is set to last well into 2012 as it will take approximately a year for any capacity expansion to be brought online. As the largest purchasers of NAND flash memory seek to lock in supply this could result in higher prices and allocation for smaller companies. eetimes.eu