To: Uncle Mikey who wrote (5105 ) 10/31/1997 6:58:00 AM From: qdog Respond to of 152472
Ranger Mike, Yogi qdog here. Yes Asia is in a major correction and dare I say this next word; crash. Thailand, Malaysia and Phillipines have been in worsening shape for sometime. Japan has been slow to rebound in it's own market. It was Hong Kong that broke the damn, A major market and not emerging. All this spillled over into the rest of the emerging markets and major markets. However is was far from a crash. When you look at crashes in major exchanges they generally take on magnitudes of 20% loss or more. The US market has only corrected a total of 17%, with a 7% one day selloff. IF you lok at Europe it is about the smae scenario. Now you have some serious damage in other non Asian markets, like Brazil. So we aren't out of the woods yet. True this global emerging market wealth has been seriously hurt. True somethings that were thought to happen, may have to be put on the back burner. Investor pshycology is stung and it's gut check time. I think it is all positive. To rapid growth is corrosive, investors greed and speculation is now temper and smacked back into a more realistic and sober state (I'll never drink Martini's again). Look at the flight to bonds as a bit of proof to a change in thinking. The real danger is how governments react. IF you start to get protectionism and trade barrier throwing up everywhere; I suggest that will be a repeat of the 30's. There is a risk that we start heading into a series of global government mistakes. As long as governments stay the course, ensure full faith in their banking system and provide liguidity in their markets, then in 6-12 months time we will all look back at this as an oppurtunity to buy. IT certainly was educational for a good many, but in the grand scheme of things, hardly ranks up there with the blackest of Mondays as far as the US is concern. Now were are those picnic baskets full of doggie biscuits!!!!