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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: John Vosilla who wrote (225157)10/16/2009 4:52:28 PM
From: kikogreyRead Replies (1) | Respond to of 306849
 
Had a conversation with a patient's husbands the other day . . . he was bragging that he intended to buy a beautiful home in the inland empire (Socal's exburb) for low $200, marked down from $450. Being naive I thought his motivation was for decent housing for his family (wife was having a baby.) I was shocked when he told me his primary motivation was to make big bucks on the house after a couple of years. Do you think the stock market coming back from dead has the sheeple thinking RE will do the same? He says he hasn't bought yet because of the multiple bids on these homes.



To: John Vosilla who wrote (225157)10/16/2009 5:30:09 PM
From: Smiling BobRespond to of 306849
 
I just hope Goldman and the Wall Street mafia do their time..
Unlikely to happen. But until WS and conditions return to some semblance of sanity, I'll have a hard time pretending anything's fixed and getting bullish.



To: John Vosilla who wrote (225157)10/22/2009 3:02:12 PM
From: Jim McMannisRespond to of 306849
 
Survey: S. Fla home values will drop -- but how much?

6:22 a.m. EDT, October 21, 2009

sun-sentinel.com

While recent evidence shows South Florida's home values have begun to flatten out, a new forecast says prices of single-family homes will take another serious tumble in the year to come.

And, among 381 metropolitan areas ranked nationwide, Miami will be the biggest loser, according to Fiserv, a financial information and analysis firm.

The firm predicts Miami home values will plunge another 29.9 percent by June 2010, on top of price declines of 48 percent since peaking in 2006. Orlando fared second-worse, with values shrinking 27 percent. Prices are forecast to fall another 26 percent in Fort Lauderdale.

Nationwide, Fiserv predicts home values will slide another 11.3 percent

In Miami, that means the median home price would fall to $150,500 by next June and $153,100 in the Fort Lauderdale metro area. The price deductions are calculated from the median price at the end of the second quarter.

The forecast contradicts recent evidence from the highly regarded S&P/Case-Shiller index as well as median price data from the Florida Association of Realtors. Both measures have shown single-family home values mellowing in South Florida. Fiserv bases its forecast on Case-Shiller data, but also other economic variables, including interest rates, demographic trends and labor market conditions.

Jack McCabe, a Deerfield Beach-based real estate analyst, said the Fiserv forecast was unrealistic. He predicts prices will fall another 10 percent to 15 percent regionwide before bottoming out. After that, they will remain flat for two more years, as the effect of a massive number of foreclosures lingers.

McCabe said Case-Shiller data generally lagged other real-time housing indicators available to analysts. He agreed, however, that South Florida's housing woes were not over.

"Distressed properties are going to fuel the inventory pipeline through 2010,'' McCabe said.

"Because they are distressed, they are going to have the lowest asking prices and they are going to dictate market conditions.''



To: John Vosilla who wrote (225157)11/10/2009 9:10:33 AM
From: Jim McMannisRead Replies (1) | Respond to of 306849
 
$100K homes dominate the market

At the beginning of this decade, Brevard County’s real estate market was dominated by homes selling for less than $100,000.

floridatoday.com

The end of the decade is shaping up the same way.

In 2000, half of all residential properties in Brevard were sold for less than $100,000 and in 2001, the figure was 42 percent, according to a FLORIDA TODAY analysis of county property sales records.

By 2006, soaring real estate prices meant only That shrank to only 3 percent of sales that year were less than $100,000.in 2006 as the real estate prices soared, .

This year, as the economy slumped and housing prices dropped, homes in that category are on pace to account for almost 4 out of every 10 sales.

“For buyers, they are no longer priced out of the market,” said John Krause, a sales associate with National Realty of Brevard.

Much of the trend has been driven by foreclosures and short sales and sales of other “distressed” properties, which now account for about a third of homes sold here.

So far this year, 1,550 houses, condos and townhouses were bought from banks or other financial institutions. Another 845 were sold under duress.

The median price of those homes was $89,400. Those properties range from a south Melbourne single-family home bought from a bank for $5,000 to a short sale of a Lansing Island home for $1.4 million.

Krause said nearly all the buyers he is working with are looking at homes in Palm Bay built in 2005 or 2006 and that are now selling at prices up to 50 percent off their original sales.

President Barack Obama on Friday signed a bill that extends up to April 2010 an $8,000 tax credit to first-time homebuyers while adding a provision for buyers who have owned their current homes for at least five years. They could get tax credits of up to $6,500.

Falling home prices were a tremendous opportunity for Vicky Raimer and her parents.

Years ago, A few years back, the three decided to leave Brevard and move to South Carolina.

A couple of years ago, though, they decided to move back to Brevard, where her parents met and married 51 years ago. At first, Raimer and her parents rented adjoining apartments and later shared a rental house.
(2 of 2)

But falling home prices lured Raimer to a seminar for first-time homebuyers. Earlier this year, her parents bought the perfect house for the trio, one that has two bedrooms and two-and-a-half baths downstairs for her parents and separate living quarters with a private entrance upstairs for her.

“Since both of my parents are in their 70s, we all liked the idea of living together in case of emergencies,” Raimer said. “We spend time together and have dinner together but I still have my own place to go to when I’m ready.”

The Raimers paid $138,000 for the house, which had been listed months earlier for $214,000. Raimer said they wouldn’t have been able to afford the home — which was a short sale — at the higher price.

“It has been a blessing,” Raimer said. “Unfortunately for the people who had to sell, we feel for them. Nobody wants to see anybody lose their house. You really don’t. But it has worked out great for us.”
Looking
for a deal
Just about all his potential buyers are looking for lower-priced homes said, said Merritt Island real estate broker Ralph Perrone Jr. “That is pretty much all we see. And mostly it is investors who are buying.”

Investors who can pay cash are in the driver’s seat in this market, Perrone said, since they don’t have to go through the time-consuming process of getting a mortgage. In some cases, he said, deals are closed in matter of days, rather than the weeks or months needed for non-cash transactions.

Besides financing difficulties and competition from investors, people looking to purchase a home to live in for less than $100,000 have other hurdles to clear, such as low appraisal prices and the tedious — and uncertain — process of buying a short sale.

“It is the right time to buy,” Perrone said, “but it is a very difficult time to buy.”
Fewer high-
dollar homes
Financing limitations have helped slow the sale of more expensive homes. Because of the credit crunch, the only source of financing for most people are loans insured by the Federal Housing Administration. Such loans require down payments as little as 3 percent, but are limited in Brevard County to no more than $291,250.

Anybody looking to buy a more expensive home would almost certainly need a 20 percent down payment, or $60,000 on a $300,000 house. Earlier this decade, such loans were available with little or even no down payment.

So far this year, just 9.2 percent of the homes sold in the county went for $300,000 or more. In 2005, 27.2 percent did.

Those who are buying more expensive homes say they are doing so for the same reason first-time homebuyers are: Because they feel those homes are great values right now. So far, 20 homes have sold for $1 million or more this year.

“When a $3 million house goes down to $1 million, you can get a cash buyer from Canada or London,” Perrone said.

Perrone’s own parents bought a riverfront home in Cocoa last November for $1.2 million, in a deal he brokered. But Ralph Perrone Sr. points out the house was listed for $3.9 million in 2005. “The value was absolutely there. . . . I’m glad I didn’t pay $3.9 million for my house,” he said.
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To: John Vosilla who wrote (225157)11/16/2009 11:11:58 AM
From: Jim McMannisRead Replies (2) | Respond to of 306849
 
The new flipping: short sales

heraldtribune.com

Untold millions of dollars that banks could have recovered from the sale of distressed Florida homes have instead been pocketed as profits by a new breed of property flipper.



To: John Vosilla who wrote (225157)11/23/2009 10:34:47 AM
From: Jim McMannisRead Replies (2) | Respond to of 306849
 
Glut of FL area foreclosures expected to swell

bradenton.com


MANATEE — At first glance, case number 2009-CA-11764 is not much different than many others that have been filed in Manatee County Circuit Court this year.

In the suit, filed Nov. 12, a mortgage servicer contends a southern Manatee couple defaulted on their $49,500 loan by not making any payments since June. The servicer, acting on behalf of Fannie Mae, seeks to foreclose on the couple’s unit in the Shadybrook Village condominium complex.

But the case is notable because it was the 5,593rd mortgage foreclosure lawsuit filed in Manatee in 2009 — eclipsing a record high set just last year. The tally has since grown to 5,687 cases as of Friday, and is widely expected to exceed 6,000 when the year is over.

That was no surprise to court officials, foreclosure experts and those in the mortgage industry, who say the trend is unlikely to change anytime soon.

“I wish things were different, but I don’t think it’s going to be much better in 2010,” said Bob Stobaugh, the Gulf Coast Mortgage Bankers Association’s 2009-10 president.

He and others cite many reasons for their pessimism, including high unemployment; growing numbers of delinquent loans; lenders’ inability or unwillingness to modify loan terms; and ineffective mortgage relief programs.

“I hate to be a pessimist, but I also have to acknowledge reality,” Anne Weintraub, a Sarasota real-estate attorney and foreclosure expert, wrote in an e-mail. “It is my opinion that the amount of foreclosures will increase in the new year.”

Crisis enters fourth year

That extends the local mortgage meltdown into its fourth year