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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bobby Yellin who wrote (2683)	10/31/1997 8:43:00 AM
From: Dwight Taylor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116823

Bobby-- In nine years of owning a construcion business an unusual thing has occured. In 1988 I hired carpenters at $20/hr. That was the going rate . Today, I hire the same quality for $14/hr. Jobs, jobs, jobs. Sure, there are plenty out there but they don't pay. IMHO--deflation. In 1988 the S&L where I bank offered 14% mortgage money. Today it is 6 1/2% and mortgage brokers are all over the place. There is plenty of supply. And it is going lower....deflation. Check out MISC, Market Trends and Strategies, Flight to Safety. Help us find ways to make money on the downside. Ben

To: Bobby Yellin who wrote (2683)	10/31/1997 10:01:00 AM
From: Phil Varichon	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 116823

I agree that deflation might become the #1 problem... And gold never did to well in those environments(down 19% from 1929-32)... So what's left? bonds, and the smart money is just doing that now.. I would prefer to be wrong... The chart showing the world commodity VS world bonds just failed to confirm a buy signal... this is deflationnary... Philippe

To: Bobby Yellin who wrote (2683)	11/2/1997 1:34:00 PM
From: PaulM	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116823

Bob - I agree that the outlook is deflationary, but it seems to me that the govt and Fed Rserve can easily make inflation if it decides to do so. Which it will likely do in a depressed economy. (Inflation is easy to do. Growth and employment is a different story). So much of predicting what the economy will do is predicting what the govt will do. Which is inherently unrpedictable, motivated as its is by political and other special concerns. However, the low paying jobs and growing divisions between haves and have nots that you speak of is less a result of this administration and more technologiocal and other trends. Knowledge based methods are replacing old ways of doing things because they are superior. Because it would now be impossible to compete without them. This inevetably means lots of dislocation and disproportionate spoils to those who control or even work in knowledge based areas. IMO, these represent positive long term trends. But not before the huge, painful unraveling and reallocation of the ecomony which we are now faced with. One reason I expect a gold rally, particularly in 6-12 months or so. In the meanwhile, may be worth waiting for an absolute bottom. Paul