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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Real Man who wrote (90639)	10/18/2009 10:31:55 AM
From: GROUND ZERO™	3 Recommendations Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

We'll eventually move higher, much higher, but I think this coming down swing may be deeper than most expect... here's why: If you look at a daily continuation chart of the SP futures front month over the last few years, a downtrend line can be drawn from the two highest points; the first is the high set on 10/10/07 at 1586.50 and the second high set on 5/19/08 at 1442.00... to be very precise, I created a downtrend line mathematically to eliminate any guess work or manual errors... There are 144.50 points from the first high to the second high... including weekdays when the markets are closed, there are 153 days between these two highs... If I divide the price difference between both highs by the number of market days, I arrive at a downtrend line which moves lower at the rate of .944444 points each market day... This past Friday, 10/16/09 is 367 days after the 5/19/08 high of 1442.00... at the rate of decline for this downtrend line we would place this down trend line for Friday, now two years in the making, at exactly 1095.38, Friday's high was 1095.20, this means Friday's high came within .18 points of this two year downtrend line... this amounts to one or two ticks depending on whether you're looking at the mini or the large contract... The mathematics is stunning... I think the market could still move much higher, but I now also believe it will have to overcome this hurdle, a pull back of some significance may be upon us and it could be deeper than anticipated... this remains to be seen, but I believe it's well worth noting... GZ