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Biotech / Medical : Immunomedics (IMMU) - moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kdd999 who wrote (7898)	10/19/2009 6:48:13 PM
From: idahoranch1	Respond to of 63329

Things could change with good data from the childrens E-mab ALL trial if the COG/NCI go for an approval. That is expected if the data are compelling. But your points are valid, and that is why I'm surprised that UCB isn't more aggressive with the data they have in hand, not only the dosing trials, but the trial they are running for those patients who benefited from the Alleviate trials. Those are long term trials now.

To: kdd999 who wrote (7898)	10/19/2009 10:43:31 PM
From: li3511	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 63329

> I guess there is a LOT of dumb money on wall street. > > Last Friday on Fast Money the guy who plays options said that there was > huge call buying on HGSI, and he even bought some calls. He glibly said > they have a drug in Ph3 for lupus, and it's going to be a blockbuster. > > Not everybody is dumb. There's a fairly sizable short interest in that stock > too (many more than in IMMU). Do you want to do some casino-style gambling? On November 2, HGS announces the top-line results of the second of the Phase III trials for Benlysta, BLISS-76. If it meets endpoints, they will quickly file for approval. However... Everyone was dead-set sure that the first of the trials, BLISS-52 would fail. When it didn't, the stock went up from about 5 to about 20. Now, everyone is dead-set sure that BLISS-76 will succeed. Well, maybe. It strikes me that the downside from failure at this point is a LOT steeper than the upside on success. The stock price already has success baked into it. The logic is that the p value from the first trial makes failure on a retest highly improbable. What people forget is that such logic only holds if everything is the same on the retest. Here, different ethnicities are being tested, at different clinics, on different continents. Anyone want to step up and place a bet?