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Biotech / Medical : Immunomedics (IMMU) - moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: li3511 who wrote (7934)	10/21/2009 9:31:10 AM
From: idahoranch1	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 63324

<<I would find the best oncologist I could and take his advice.>> And part of that advice would be to hurry up and get your affairs in order, you don't have much time. In January a well known person (I won't mention the name) was diagnosed with PC, stage lV. An effort was made to get him into the trial. He along with his oncologist, and I'm sure he had a very good one, went a different route. The funeral was last month. The patients that I'm aware of who got hPAM4 at that same time are still doing quite well and their quality of life is still quite good, and yes, I have personal knowledge of them, granted that is an advantage. I think we will learn a lot in January. I fully expect over 30 patients to be reported on, some may not be fully evaluable of course, as follow ups will just be starting for some.

To: li3511 who wrote (7934)	10/21/2009 11:41:00 AM
From: erickerickson	Respond to of 63324

<<<This brings us back to my original point: don't blame the analyst or anyone else for not recognizing the greatness of hPAM4, as you do, since Immunomedics has not published or presented any data about it yet>>> This illustrates, to me, the difference between those of us who compulsively follow this little company and the rest of the world <G>. And, really, I have to agree with you. IMMU has not yet demonstrated a viable drug candidate, nor has UCB for them. The key here is demonstrate. Tantalizing hints and short trial summaries aren't a demonstration. We can argue a lot about whether IMMU is fairly-valued, but unless and until we get a "preponderance of evidence", analysts (either casual or paid) are free to draw any conclusion they want and I can't say they are wrong. Speculating about the motives is pretty much a waste. This is where having faith in your evaluation of a company gets tested. I'll happily deposit large $$$ in my bank account and thumb my nose at those analysts that "just didn't get it". But I can't do that until I have the $$$<G>.... And I do have some faith that excellence will win out, albeit not without some business acumen backing it. I do wonder whether UCB thinks stopping the trial because of "bottling issues" looks like a good move from this vantage. And I'll be more confident when PIII trials start since it'll signal to me that UCB thinks they can overcome HGSIs first-mover advantage. And in my fantasies, UCB goes straight for an NDA, or perhaps a "rolling NDA". I'm thinking about buying lottery tickets too <G>. Meanwhile, we're at the mercy of manipulation and rumor. And how is that different than the past? We've essentially given back the bump we got from having a "me too" drug, and is that surprising and/or undeserved? And, yes, I'm getting tired of waiting. But like Idaho, I think 2010 will be a very interesting year. I think that hPAM4 has the potential to make a huge difference for IMMU in an amazingly short time-frame, but unless and until there's something more substantial than anecdotes, I don't expect many people to notice. On the bright side, it's distinctly possible that we're talking a matter of a few months rather than years to have something more substantial, but we're pretty much bystanders watching the event until then. Whether what we're watching is an amazingly wonderful event or a train wreck is to be determined. Either way I'll be goggle-eyed. And at least we have money to last until we can get more substantive data... FWIW Erick@Musing.com