hello bull_dozer, a short form,
my premise is as follows,
(i) the shadow price of gold today is usd 60k/oz, about what it may take to zero state reset all gdp multiplied by certain sensible velocity of money, certain amount of reasonable debt to support gdp, trade flow, black economy, whatever - sum the above in full, and divide by number of ounces of monetary gold in vaults everywhere enhanced by an allocation of jewellry mented down
(ii) meaning should we go to a global gold standard today with short changing all current true economic activities and all useful debt, gold price would be at usd 60k/oz
(iii) as we delay the zero state monetary reset, and print money to delay such, the shadow price of gold merely rises, from its current usd 60k/oz to [60k + new print money/monetary gold inventory], and that could eventually be usd 90k, 120k, 240k, whatever per oz
(iv) the later the delay to zero state reset, the higher the shadow price of gold
(v) today, the shadow price 60k/oz gold can be had for the paltry sum of usd 1,050/oz, not just a bargain, but an outrageous bargain - advice, keep buying bargain gold, at around 1/60 of its true zero state monetary reset value, and the reset value can only increase
(vi) whenever zero state monetary reset happens, gold will effectively go from the spot price to the reset value, pulverizing income statements and balance sheets of the vast majority, those that, in the main, own no gold
(vii) the creditors and wage earners and pensioners would be destroyed overnight
(viii) the debtors would not be helped, unless they borrowed to the amount a donald trump would have, because the usual debtors own far more assets, right or wrong, than debt, and the asset values would meelt relative to gold at reset value, whatever the reset value
(ix) post reset, perhaps 12-18 months later, usa gdp would be at around 5% of global gdp, sent back to pre-1982 real levels, and the 70+ trillion of usa debt would be effectively a more reasonable number relative to oz of gold in storage valued at reset value, of gold's then shadow price
(x) in such a play out, anyone selling gold on the way up must concurrently reinvest the proceeds into real estate, parking in cash for as short a duration as possible, and avoid paper wagers given that how any company (including gold company)would fare through the darkest interregnum is at best highly uncertain
so, gold target price today is already 60k, its shadow price, even though it can be picked up as a absurd bargain at usd 1,050+/-
and gold target price tomorrow would be a higher number than 60k/oz, etc
the longer the delay for zero state reset, the higher the target price
that is my story on gold, for watch n brief, and so, in above context, there is little point to be bearish on gold, and one should and ought to keep buying with one's excess savings, surplus capital, and, also
it makes little difference to choose gold stocks over gold, as they would go up by effectively same percentage, for at such large increase in value per target pricing, the leverage effect of mining shares is next to nil
(xi) the zero state monetary reset should happen sometime between 7 and 15 years from this day, as diligent china gdp approach that of wastrel usa output, thus making a speculation in gold a wager for china and a bet against usa
the above premise is internally consistent, more rather than less, and we just have to wait to see if premise is spot on, sort of on, or rubbish altogether
cheers, tj
p.s. in gold terms, we have already suffered an 8-years short balance sheet and gdp depression.
we do not need to capitalize G and bold S to have a Gold Standard; a simpler gold standard would do just as well as measuring bench mark
i.e. never mind that qcom can be bought for usd 40+/- per share; how many ounces of gold does it take, sorry days after tragic nights, by wastrel maurice or prime evil cb ilaine
how many ounces of gold does it take to buy an average house in an ok neighborhood?
how many coins to pay to attend a name school? |
