Mayoral politics in a big red-state city:
Top candidates for Houston mayor (officially a non-partisan office here) are in order of their polling:
1) Peter Brown - rich older white architect, Democrat
2) Annise Parker - now city controller, former accountant for Mosbacher Energy, white lesbian Democrat
3) Gene Locke - older black establishment lawyer, Democrat, former city attorney
4) Roy Morales - hispanic Republican, retired USAF lt col.
The election is to replace Bill White - D, mayor for three terms, former Clinton Sec. of Energy.
Republicans are NOT united behind Morales, their vote will split among all the candidates. Whites and hispanics don't generally vote along racial/ethnic lines in Houston. Blacks did when Lee Brown was elected the first black mayor in Houston but probably will not vote on racial lines this time.
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Brown leads poll in Houston mayor's race
Parker trails closely behind
By BRADLEY OLSON
HOUSTON CHRONICLE
Oct. 18, 2009, 10:28AM
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City Councilman Peter Brown, who has blanketed the airwaves for months with an evergreen message about his “blueprint” for Houston, has emerged as the front-runner in the Nov. 3 mayoral race, according to a Houston Chronicle poll conducted last week.
City Controller Annise Parker trails closely behind Brown, with former City Attorney Gene Locke in a distant third place.
Houston could get its first gay mayor.
Brown's rise is a testament to the power of money in a political contest in which many voters do not know much about the candidates. He has poured $2.4 million of his family's personal fortune into the campaign, a sum that has allowed him to reach every Houston community with detailed information about his ideas – on TV, the radio or by mail.
While Brown holds a slight lead in many demographic categories — from Republicans to Hispanic voters — the outcome of the race is far from certain. Less than three weeks from the election, 36 percent of voters have yet to make up their minds.
“It's close, a lot of voters are undecided, and there appear to be three legitimate contenders,” said John Zogby, president and CEO of Zogby International, which conducted the poll for the Chronicle. “Brown has spent the most money and has the greater name recognition, and that's been enough to put him in first place. But you could make the argument that he could be a little disappointed in these results, because whatever lead he has is hardly commensurate with what he spent.”
According to the poll, Brown leads the field with 23.8 percent of the vote, followed by Parker with 19 percent, Locke with 13.1 percent, and Harris County Board of Education Trustee Roy Morales with 6.7 percent.
The results are drawn from a survey of 601 likely Houston voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.
Parker, Locke take heart
In head-to-head matchups that provide some insight on how the candidates may fare in a potential runoff, Brown's lead withers to statistical insignificance against Parker, with him winning 35.3 percent to Parker's 34 percent, and 28.8 percent undecided.
In a one-on-one contest between Brown and Locke, Brown leads with 36.9 percent to 24.9 percent, with 34.1 percent undecided.
Brown's campaign noted that his dark horse candidacy has been discounted by insiders and politicos from the outset of the race.
“I am humbled by the support of Houstonians from every part of our city,” he said in a statement. “But this race is far from over. I am going to continue running like I am 10 points behind. And since I have been 10 points behind for most of this campaign, I kind of have that down by now.”
Although Parker has seen a sharp decline from her position at the head of the field in a poll taken by the Houston Organization of Public Employees in July, her campaign reacted positively and did not miss an opportunity to take a swipe at Brown.
“After spending more than $2 million, Peter Brown is still in a virtual tie in a head-to-head matchup with Annise Parker,” campaign manager Adam Harris said. “Brown is making a serious attempt to buy this election but the bottom line is that all Brown's money cannot blow Parker away.”
Kim Devlin, a senior adviser to Locke, noted that although Parker has been elected to citywide office six times, she did not break the 20 percent mark in the poll. And Brown “is learning an expensive lesson that Houstonians cannot be bought and leadership is more than just writing a check.”
Devlin added that Locke has the most room to grow, given that his television advertising had only begun hitting the airwaves for about a week before the poll was taken.
While Parker is close to Brown and polled strongly among self-identified Democrats, women and younger voters, the results could spell trouble for Locke. He has only slightly better name recognition in the race than Morales, a more conservative candidate whose anemic fundraising has not allowed him to pay for any television, radio or mail advertising.
Where Locke stands
Locke, on the other hand, has raised more than $2 million, more than any other candidate in the race, and began television advertising on Oct. 5.
Among the most striking results is that more than 40 percent of black voters remain undecided. Of those who have chosen a candidate, Locke, an African-American and former civil rights activist, holds only 25.8 percent of the vote to Brown's 22.6 percent.
Brown has been running advertising on radio stations with predominantly black audiences featuring the support of three prominent black ministers, including William Lawson, the founding pastor of the church Locke attends.
Brown has been running advertising on radio stations with predominantly black audiences featuring the support of three prominent black ministers, including William Lawson, the founding pastor of the church Locke attends.
Yikes, Locke's minister is supporting the other guy.
“For Locke, this is going to be difficult,” Zogby said. “He's very much an establishment figure. He does reasonably well across the board, but he's got to rediscover his inner African-American-ness. That's going to be his trump card here.”
‘Hard to decide'
While many of the voters surveyed voiced support for certain candidates, telephone interviews indicate their commitment may not be strong.
Ernest Delaune, 69, said he has had more difficulty choosing between Locke, Parker and Brown than in any mayoral election he can remember. Part of the reason, he said, is that things seem to be going well at City Hall.
“We're not as emotionally involved in things as we were the last few times when things were all going in the wrong direction,” he said, noting that he is tentatively supporting Locke. “Here, we have several people who appear to be competent who are running. None of them seem to be putting forth any controversial ideas or anything, so it's hard to decide between them. I wouldn't have any problem with any of them being there.”
chron.com |
