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To: w0z who wrote (3232)	10/31/1997 11:18:00 AM
From: Sam Citron	Respond to of 10921

Bill, Excellent post! I thought your simple tire analogy was more eloquent than Briefings, while making the same point. Brief comment: Your post quoted a source as mentioning that Asia only accounts for 25% of the end user demand for PCs. That may be true, but it also has been (with Brazil) the fastest area of PC demand growth. SC

To: w0z who wrote (3232)	10/31/1997 11:49:00 AM
From: Sam Citron	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Bill, One other point. While I think the Briefings article makes some great points, I wouldn't go too far in extending the analogy from Mexico to S.E. Asia. The '95 Mexican crisis threatened the solvency of a close US neighbor. US intervention to support the Peso helped prevent the crisis from spreading to Latin America. While the IMF and US have pledged today to help support Indonesia, the magnitude of the crash in SE Asia is far worse and has already quickly spread throughout the region. Also, while there might be plenty of rescuers eager to help out, the Economist points out that such eagerness to bail them out may have harmful moral hazards associated with it, by making SE Asian leaders more intransigent toward needed economic reforms. SC