predictions:
(1) we will soon enough learn what zero-state monetary reset looks like, closely;
(2) the reset timing depends on whether we pull the rug from under and reset by own volition and design, or we are reset by enveloping dire situation per logic of inexorable and inevitable mathematics;
(2a) if we reset by own volition, i figure it could start within 3-7 years by the japanese going their separate ways, withdraw capital from the world in general and usa in particular, and ex-creditors become new and systemic borrowers, wither and is no more; or
(2b) would be within 8-15 years should either china, as its gdp approaches and overtakes, and/or usa as its imperial burdens simply squashes its very diverse and no-love-lost electorates, decide to part ways and face their respective destinies just as usa and britain did not so very long ago, each running effectively uncoordinated monetary policies per tradition, prudence vs recklessness, savings against dire need to borrow in order to fund interest burden; or
(2c) a bit but not much beyond 16 years if all substantive nations and collection of nations keep doing what comes naturally, and none initiates an exit plan that is workable, and global fiat moneey inflation runs its full and very predictable course, inexorably towards and eventually arrives at its inevitable mathematical end state, asymptotic inflation and zimbabwe outcome;
(3) in all of the above spectrum of propagation, life would go on as now;
(3a) europe would either continue to effectively spending down its legacy savings, either while enjoying yet another bottle of wine and gradually transitioning to balanced islam / christian state, or spending same while forestalling the equilibrium state;
(3b) japan would turn into robot nation or immigrant state, and consuming its legacy savings in either case;
(3c) russia ? what russia ?
(3d) brazil, india and china on the one hand, and usa on the other, would in the aggregate determine what the world would look like for the next 100 to 10,000 years, whether the planet would be lifted out of pop culture, imperialism and fraud, revert to ancient norm of best-practice traditions, curiosity-driven explorations, non-interference, and natural order, or be wasted;
I believe all would work out ok, because I am an optimist ;0)
(4) the mathematical point of arrival of above (3d) when everything works out for the better is when the purchasing value of per capita income works out equally amongst the four nations, and that be in year 2015:
brazil 200 million (2010 gdp @ 1.4 tril)
india 1.2 billion (2010 gdp @ 1.3 tril)
china 1.4 billion (2010 gdp 4.7 tril)
usa 320 million (2010 gdp 14.5 tril)
(4a) the per capital average of the bicu (brazil, india, china, usa) gdp in current dollars would be 7k a person, vs 45k per person in usa today
(4b) meaning at some time, the ultimate current dollar simple average of gdp per capita in usa would have to drop by 85% (sounds about right, and nothing unusual, since in gold terms such a drop has happened once already within the past 9 years), and if not drop by more than 85%, be matched % for % by other states for growth beyond drubbing, and yes, much of the middle class would be destroyed, or, per tradition, redefined
(4c) and same in china must double (sounds very conservative, as it has been so within the past so few years), on top of any growth % usa can manage
(5) what will zero-state monetary reset look like? That would depend on where one is located at juncture of reset, obviously, and should look quite enjoyable from shanghai enabled by freedom copied from hong kong, liberty borrowed from macau, and traditional family values enhanced by income rise, while at the same time less blissful from new york, divided, acrimonious, vindictive, and extreme, a sort of variation on detroit now, and california soon enough to be
(6) at the bell, gold spot price would meet its shadow value Message 26039541 , and that be, in current dollar terms, around usd 60k per oz, close enough for government work Message 26042320 and no need to quibble.
Cheers, j |
