To: Road Walker who wrote (524340 ) 10/29/2009 11:01:29 AM From: tejek Respond to of 1580538 IMF Regional Report 10/29/2009 8:55 AM EDT The IMF's regional report noted that the recoveries in India, China and Australia are proceeding fast enough that the output gaps are beginning to close. Central and Eastern Europe are laggards. This is underscored today by Russia's central bank making a 50-basis-point cut in its key refi rate to 9.5%. Whereas officials in some Asian countries want to tighten lending, Russia seeks to boost it. Russia's economy contracted 10.9% in the second quarter. The government forecasts a 6.8% contraction in the second half. Russia is the only "BRIC" country that's still cutting rates. Inflation remains stubbornly high, though easing. The CPI year-over-year pace peaked in the middle of last year near 15% but was still near 14% in the second quarter. It stood at 10.7% in September, and the October reading is due out next week amid expectations of a 10.2% rate. Hungary is seen as the next big candidate in the region to cut interest rates. The key two-week deposit rate stands at 7%. The market looks for a 50-basis-point rate cut before year-end, though we recognize the risk in the direction of more aggressive action rather than less. A report from Fitch issued today warns that widening public deficits and debt are undermining the region's outlook. It now expects the region to contract 6.1%, compared with a 4.6% decline anticipated four months ago. A more supportive global environment, Fitch says, will help lift growth next year to 2.6% from its prior forecast of 1.5%. However, budget deficits are expected to average 4.6% of GDP (down from 5.9% this year). This means that deficits will expand faster than the economy, so government debt ratios will continue to rise. Fitch estimates that average debt to GDP will rise to 36% by the end of next year, from 23% at the end of 2007.