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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DanD who wrote (87143)	10/29/2009 10:36:25 AM
From: Jon Koplik	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 197227

Re : "AT&T Wireless data congestion" -- I think the cause of the congestion is the "torrent" of data traffic triggered by the following : People who own an iPhone go out to eat at a restaurant, see that their lunch "tab" is $10.00, and then (with great "fanfare") take out their phone to use an "app" to calculate the impossibly confusing answer to the question : How big of a tip should I leave ? Jon.

To: DanD who wrote (87143)	10/29/2009 11:38:09 AM
From: engineer	7 Recommendations Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 197227

if you mean that hte management is in denial of hte panic level to close the growing gap between the present coverage and the needed coverage, then yes. The issue is that the Iphone has presented a curve to the execs that they have never seen before and they are not altering the way they think about coverage roll out to meet the new demand. Voice is a linear demand curve. As you sell a phone hte demand on network is linear. Data and smartphones are a non linear curve. the more htey sell them and the more educated the user becomes, the higher the data rate from that one user. So the demand is exponential. Now you have two effects that AT&T has not addressed yet. As the data capacity grows the net effect on the user is that the actual data rate they see is lower. This has to do with more fragmentation of hte available channel, queing theory blocking, and channle reuse. Since hte data growth is far outstripping hte voice growth now, the carrier swtiches tower capacity over to data and lessens the capacity for voice, in effect, making hte voice coverage less at the same time. So, what is AT&T doing? Taking hte old slow, careful approach to roll out where any new innovations are 2-3 years away while they slowly evaluate, characterize, and rollout coverage. But the issue is that every month that they delay the panic mode rollout, they fall more than two months behind in the ability to meet equalization in the network. What will be needed by all carriers is a epoch change in coverage ability just to keep up. Now bring on netbooks and more data intensive devices and this only intensifies. It would be nice if Qaulcomm would work as hard on teh infra side to meet the demand as it is working on the handset side and netbook side. This deficit make shte sales meet a negative attitude and adverse marketing channel. I predict that if AT&T does not reverse this trend of not meeting hte demand curve, they will start to see a whole heartely downturn in the demand curve of all smart phones and a negativeness on thier network that wll last for many many years to come. Take care.