To: Eleder2020 who wrote (12112 ) 10/31/1997 5:53:00 PM From: Douglas Nordgren Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 29386
Any thoughts on this week's events?] Eleder2020, I think the effective word is "Sobering." The numbers are sobering. The hype is sobering up. The conference call was very sober. The road ahead is difficult enough to demand such sober negotiation. The company has just careened a tight hairpin; accelerating off the turn, leading the pack on the curve; and the rubber is worse for the wear. It's a long race, need new wheels. The fourth quarter pit stop is going to be worth it, in the long run. From $10M Ysales to $100M Ysales in a thousand days is no sprint. If sales don't ramp up soon, money will be needed to fulfill sales. People generally only invest in or lend money to sober people, unless there is a blatant opportunity to gouge the beneficiary (ala Saudi Prince). The company seems sober minded and defensively forward looking. I believe they will garner a decent share of the market and perhaps $100M - $300M in Ysales by end of FY2000. Longterm upside is 10x to 30x revenues in three years. A buyout/merger is also a possibility. The bitter shortside is eat your losses and get back in smaller and cheaper, or go look somewhere else for action. The traders are like Jesus' Poor, "they are always with us," and they'll be boxing in and out, up and down. Can't make any price predictions, other than to say that by this time next year, Ancor will be higher. BTW, have I mentioned that I am definitely long? The money in the IRA hasn't got any other place to go for another 15 - 20 years. dnord PS - For those looking at other Fibre Channel plays, there is a post "Fibre Channel Players On SI" with links to FC Companies' threads. Enjoy, and if anybody got left out, please post them. Thanks.exchange2000.com