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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sam who wrote (45746)	11/1/2009 9:10:22 PM
From: Return to Sender	2 Recommendations Respond to of 95572

Leavitt Brothers Calls Top (at least in the short term): leavittbrothers.com My comments below: Over time the market often develops direct or indirect relationships to a certain indicator, commodity or in this case currency which is the dollar. Market analysts and gurus can always find a way to explain why the market acts as it does. Does it really matter? Not to me. There is now, as there has been for quite some time, an inverse relationship between the dollar and the market. Dollar goes up the market goes down and visa versa. This will not continue on forever but it is still what it is for now. Although the Leavitt Brothers discussion includes a chart of the dollar I think the discussion of under performance of small caps prior to the market top and the increase in volume on the current sell off is much more dependable in the long term of determining a market top. Thanks for posting all the other useful discussions from Schaeffer's the the like... ;-) RtS

To: Sam who wrote (45746)	11/2/2009 8:11:33 AM
From: robert b furman	Respond to of 95572

Hi Sam, "The strong Dollar policy has drained many manufacturing jobs. The low interest rates and large deficits make the USA an unfriendly place for capital to be allocated. This is bad for equities and good for manufacturing. As long as rates are low and deficits high, we'll have a drain of capital to other markets. This relationship has not always been the case. In a perfect world we'd see exports increase on a weak dollar. If we could manage low rates and a weak dollar a decoupling will occur. Hard to say what low rates are relative to historic norms. Right now it looks like the USA is not very attractive compared to global markets.We have low rates and high taxes. It is all about what the Obama presidency wants, and I don't see a very friendly capital environment out there. It appears to me that we as Americans have embraced bigger government,I believe we will get our belly full of government very quickly. The elections in 2010, now just 12 months off, will support this I believe. Should give us a romp of a market in late 2010 and 2011. In between we'll see the pelosi's,Reids,and Obama's race towards getting all that they can on the law books - whether it's good for us or not.