To: Real Man who wrote (91145 ) 11/3/2009 12:51:07 PM From: puborectalis Respond to of 94695 In polling conducted over the final weekend of this campaign, the Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey Poll finds the race is still in a statistical no man’s land, but that incumbent Jon Corzine now appears to have a razor thin 43% to 41% lead over challenger Chris Christie. Independent Chris Daggett holds at 8%. This marks a slight, albeit statistically insignificant, shift from the 43% to 42% nominal lead Christie held in polling conducted from Wednesday through Friday. “This race is still as close as it can be. It’s possible that President Obama’s visit boosted the governor’s chances. But it is also likely that some anti-Corzine voters are still unsure of casting their lot with Christie. If the undecided vote breaks largely for the Republican, this race could be a squeaker,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute. Both major party candidates run strong among their partisan bases, although Christie has dropped by a few points in the past couple of days. Republican voters give 82% support to their party’s nominee, compared to 10% for Corzine and 4% for Daggett. Democratic voters give 77% support to their party’s nominee, compared to 8% for Christie and 7% for Daggett. Independent voters shifted the most over the weekend. In the prior poll, Christie had a 51% to 29% lead over Corzine. He now holds a smaller 43% to 33% advantage among independents. The poll also finds that about 6% of New Jersey voters have already cast their ballot by mail, similar to the percentage of mail ballots received in last year’s presidential race. For these ballots, Jon Corzine looks to have the decided advantage. A majority of 53% of mail voters say they voted for the incumbent, compared to just 31% for Christie, 11% for Daggett and 5% for other candidates. “Last year, the Democrats demonstrated the ability to use the state’s new vote by mail rules to their advantage. It didn’t really matter in the presidential race where the outcome was never in doubt.