Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (45771)	11/6/2009 2:16:55 PM
From: Sam	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95598

Well, the headline of that chart is that the 10% threshold has only been crossed twice since WWII, but to me the most significant thing the chart shows is that unemployment keeps rising after recessions end, sometimes well after (especially so after the last two recessions ended--probably has to do with greater utilization of technology to make up for employees?).

To: Gottfried who wrote (45771)	11/6/2009 5:52:35 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	2 Recommendations Respond to of 95598

That's an interesting chart. Assuming the recession is ending now, and assuming the unemployment rate will continue rising for another 2 years (that's what happened the last 2 recessions), then the unemployment rate will peak at around 11-12% (official rate, which means a real rate of 16.5-18%), around late 2011. And sometime after that, real wages will start to rise. Another pattern in that chart: at best, after a recession, the unemployment rate gets cut in half during the following recovery. So, if it peaks at 12%, we can't expect it go below 6% in the following recovery.